With a long stretch of hot and humid weather on the horizon for Alabama, many are looking forward to that first dose of fresh fall air.

When could it arrive in Alabama?

The Farmers’ Almanac (not to be confused with the Old Farmer’s Almanac) has a fall forecast out, and it suggests Alabama’s future includes a stretch of “pleasant weather — perfect for fall festivals and Halloween preparations” — but not until October.

In fact, the Almanac says a ‘flirty, flurry’ fall with “early chills in the North to lingering warmth in the South, and from stormy skies to tranquil stretches, the fall will keep us on our toes.”

The first day of astronomical fall comes with the vernal equinox, which in 2025 will be on Sept. 22. The first day of meteorological fall will be Sept. 1.

The overall forecast for the Southeast, according to the Almanac, is a warm and dry start with a wet and stormy finish, which falls in line with typical Alabama fall weather.

Alabama typically sees drier weather in September (unless there is tropical trouble) and especially in October, which is usually the driest month of the year.

Then the so-called “secondary severe weather season” gains steam in November and can last through February, with increasing numbers of severe storms and tornadoes, according to data from the National Weather Service.

Here is a look at Alabama tornadoes by month. November is No. 3 for tornado numbers, after April and March:

The Almanac’s outlook for September includes thunderstorms around Labor Day (Monday, Sept. 1) and a possible “notable” hurricane threat to the Atlantic coast during the early part of the month, which possibly wouldn’t affect the state at all if it were to materialize.

October could have stretches of stormy weather across the country, according to the Almanac, but fair skies are predicted for Halloween across the Southeast region (which includes Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Florida).

“A mix of rain and clearing skies,” is the forecast for the Southeast for November, according to the Almanac, but other spots in the northern states will get their first real taste of winter.

The Thanksgiving holiday week is forecast to be “a meteorological mixed bag — light snow and rain could complicate travel plans in the central and eastern U.S., but many areas should see clearing skies just in time for the holiday feast,” according to the Almanac.

ALMANAC’S FORECAST METHOD

The Almanac says it has been making long-range weather forecasts since 1818.

Its weather predictions are based on a formula originally developed in 1818 by its founding editor, David Young.

According to the Almanac the formula includes influences by the moon, which the Almanac says can act as a “meteorological swizzle stick,” solar activity, analogs (or comparable data from past seasons), the position of the planets in the solar system and more.

The Almanac keeps its exact forecast formula under wraps, saying “to safeguard this valuable formula, the editors of the Farmers’ Almanac keep its weather prognosticator – Caleb Weatherbee – identity and the exact formula as brand secrets.”

WHAT ABOUT NOAA’S FORECAST?

NOAA also issues longer-range weather forecasts. The Climate Prediction Center has three-month outlooks for both temperature and precipitation.

The outlook out now covers the last part of summer and the first part of fall — the months of August, September and October.

The temperature outlook, shown at the top of this post, suggests a higher probability of above-average temperatures for Alabama through that period.

Most of the state has a 40-50 percent probability of above-average temperatures, but the northwest corner has slightly lower odds — 33 to 40 percent.

Here is the precipitation outlook for August through October:

It shows a 40-50 percent probability of above-average rainfall over the three-month period for most of the state. The northwest corner is again the exception and has slightly lower odds — 33-40 percent — of above-average rainfall.

The Climate Prediction Center’s outlooks will be routinely updated as fall edges closer.