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New Year’s Eve gives us plenty of reasons to celebrate, including a key AFC showdown between the surging Las Vegas Raiders and surprising Indianapolis Colts in Week 17 Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts are locked in a three-way tie for the lead in the AFC South and are clinging to the last wild card spot, while Las Vegas is coming off a huge win over Kansas City on Christmas.

Read on for our detailed preview of the clash and our best bets and picks for the battle.

NFL Week 17 Colts vs. Raiders odds preview

The Raiders’ season turned for the better when they dismissed Josh McDaniels and elevated Antonio Pierce to head coach after Week 8. Under Pierce, the Raiders haven’t been pretty – far from it – but they have played hard and are 4-3 since he took over.

America saw the Raiders clamp down on the defending Super Bowl champs on Christmas, beating the Chiefs 20-14. At 7-8, the Raiders still have a shot at the division title (they would need the Chiefs to collapse) and a playoff spot.

Indianapolis is 8-7 and tied with the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars for the division lead. Each of those three teams had a chance to take a step forward last week, and all three lost.

The Colts have lost two of their last three games. The offense has been steady with back-up Gardner Minshew II under center and ranks ninth in the NFL in points. The Colts may get star wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. back for Sunday. Pittman Jr. leads the Colts with 1,062 receiving yards but missed last week’s loss to the Falcons while he was in concussion protocol.

Defensively, aside from tackling machine Zaire Franklin, the Colts have struggled. They will get a boost from the home crowd at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Raiders are 8-5-2 against the spread this season. The Colts are 9-6. Indianapolis is a 3- to 3.5-point favorite with the total ranging from 43.5 to 44. Las Vegas opened as two-point favorites.

Kickoff is set for noon CT in Lucas Oil Stadium, where they have a special guest strike the anvil before each home game. CBS will have the broadcast.

NFL Week 17 Colts vs. Raiders best bet: Under 43.5 points (-110 or better)

Usually, we’d start our best bet picks with something on the moneyline or the spread, but we like the under so much, let’s lead with that.

The reason we like the under is because the Raiders offense has severely struggled in two of the last three weeks. They got shut out by the Vikings in Week 14 in a forgettable 3-0 affair, and then last week managed only two field goals and only 205 yards. Of course, in between, they set all sorts of records in a 63-21 win over the hapless Chargers.

But rookie QB Aidan O’Connell has not shown he can consistently move the Raiders and running back Josh Jacobs has been banged up. You can’t expect the Raiders defense to score two TDs each week like it did against the Chiefs. The under looks like the play.

NFL Week 17 Colts vs. Raiders best bet: Colts -3 points (-110 or better)

Indianapolis blew a real chance to go up in the AFC South with a loss to Atlanta last week. They will feel pressure to get it done this week. The numbers reveal Indianapolis is a better team, even though the Raiders have shown some heart under Pierce.

Minshew II has thrown for 2,940 yards with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and he’s much more experienced – and better – than O’Connell. Colts star running back Jonathan Taylor came back from a torn ligament in his thumb but was held to 43 yards by the Falcons. He should have better luck against the Raiders.

The Raiders defense will hang in there, but eventually the Colts offense will break through. A Colts win sets up a giant Week 18 showdown between the Colts and Texans likely for a playoff spot and/or the division title.

NFL Week 17 Colts vs. Raiders player prop: Davante Adams under 65.5 yards

Admittedly his body language has improved in the last few weeks, and Adams remains the Raiders best receiving weapon, but the connection with O’Connell still hasn’t jelled.

Adams had just one catch for four yards last week (on six targets) and has only gone over 100 yards twice this season. The Colts’ passing defense ranks 14th in the NFL, and they have no reason to respect the Raiders’ running game and can devote all their attention to Adams.

Last week the Raiders became the first NFL team in 23 years and only the second ever to win a game without completing a pass in the final three quarters. Adams is a great weapon who doesn’t get used.

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