Panthers vs. Oilers predictions, picks and best bets for Game 1 of the Stanley Cup final
The highly anticipated Stanley Cup final rematch will finally start Wednesday when the Edmonton Oilers host the Florida Panthers in Game 1 on Wednesday at Rogers Place.
The Panthers claimed a seven-game series win in last year’s Cup final, building a 3-0 series advantage over the Oilers before holding them off on home ice 2-1 in Game 7.
But Edmonton will have home-ice advantage in this series for the first time in the Stanley Cup playoffs. The Oilers are 6-1 at home during the postseason.
Panthers vs. Oilers predictions and best bets
- Oilers moneyline (-130) at BetMGM
- Under 6.5 goals (-125) at DraftKings
- Stuart Skinner Under 24.5 saves (-115) at bet365
- Under 1.5 first-period goals (+106) at FanDuel
The Oilers have been a high-scoring team, as they have at least three goals in 14 of their 16 playoff games so far. But they also have been ultra adept at locking games down, since they have allowed just five goals in their past six wins.
The Under was 4-3 in the seven-game series last year, and even though the Panthers are a high-octane team — they have scored five-plus goals in nine of their 17 games — there is a feeling-out period after each team’s long layoff, even though the teams played in the final last year. Hence, the first-period Under.
Panthers vs Oilers moneyline analysis
The Oilers are a slight favorite, and deservedly so since they have been dominant on home ice in the playoffs. Plus, Edmonton went 2-1 against the Panthers in games played at Rogers Place a year ago.
The Panthers are 8-2 on the road in these playoffs, with five straight victories away from Sunrise. But the Oilers’ speed could wreak havoc on Florida if the long layoff creates rust, since Connor McDavid and Co. are arguably the fastest team on the ice.
Why Edmonton could win as favorites
Best Odds: -130 at bet365
The Oilers can win by using their speed and winning the special-teams battles. Edmonton can do the latter by staying out of the penalty box, since its 66.0 percent penalty kill is the worst of any Stanley Cup finalist since the league began tracking PP/PK stats in 1977.
Contrarily, and to the surprise of no one, the Oilers have an elite power play that, at 30 percent, is the fourth-most prolific PP of any Cup finalist since 1980.
Why Florida could win as underdogs
Best Odds: +110 at FanDuel
If Sergey Bobrovsky outplays Stuart Skinner. These teams are super-even, yet the only consensus advantage either side has is Florida’s in goal.
Skinner has played well since retaining his job during the second round after Calvin Pickard went down to injury. Yet, Skinner’s improved play has been a consequence of Edmonton’s exceptional defense in front of him, since he is averaging just 23.6 saves per game in the playoffs.
Bobrovsky is only allowing about 22 saves per playoff game. But if he makes the big ones, and Skinner regresses, Florida could steal home ice and the series.