General
Winning the national championship was a far-fetched expectation for head coach Kalen DeBoer’s first year in Tuscaloosa. Still, fans wanted more than nine wins and a missed berth in the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.
DeBoer deserves some leeway considering he joined the team in mid-January of 2024. Shortly after Nick Saban retired, stars like Caleb Downs and Isaiah Bond hit the transfer portal. A few months later, players got another opportunity to leave Tuscaloosa via the Spring portal window.
Now that DeBoer is getting a standard offseason to operate as Alabama’s head coach, the expectations will ramp up. Crimson Tide fans are eager for improvement, and much of the team’s success relies on the QB battle between Ty Simpson, Austin Mack, and Keelon Russell. How the competition plays out should impact which Alabama futures bets you place for the 2025 season.
Alabama QB competition: Meet the contestants
Projected QB1 Ty Simpson
Simpson, a redshirt junior, is viewed as the favorite to win the starting job. He was third on the depth chart behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe in 2022, then sat behind Milroe for the past two seasons. Many players would’ve transferred, but Simpson stuck it out and is finally starting to see his commitment pay off through the first weeks of practice.
Entering his fourth season at Alabama gives Simpson a major leg up in the QB battle. He’s gotten small chunks of playing time each year, and his career stats include 29/50 passing for 381 yards. Simpson may not have a ton of snaps under his belt, but it’s still more than Mack and Russell.
Simpson isn’t a full-on dual-threat QB but has the mobility to make plays with his feet. Accuracy was always an issue for Milroe, and Alabama’s offense may take a step forward with a more polished passer like Simpson.
Projected QB2 Austin Mack
The redshirt sophomore’s college career started at Washington in 2023 where he was recruited by DeBoer and new Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Mack followed DeBoer to Tuscaloosa in 2024, and he only attempted three passes last season.
Simpson has more in-game experience and a longer tenure at Alabama, but Mack’s familiarity with DeBoer and Grubb could make the QB competition a bit tighter. At 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Mack certainly looks like an SEC QB.
There’s still a lot of time for the depth chart to shake up. But for now, Mack is expected to slot in at QB2 behind Simpson.
Projected QB3 Keelon Russell
Russell was an early enrollee, joining the program in Jan. 2025. The five-star recruit was the second-best player of the 2025 cycle and has the highest upside of the group. However, it’s hard to imagine DeBoer trotting out the 17-year-old to start as a true freshman.
Russell has top-tier athleticism and agility combined with outstanding arm talent. He seems destined for a successful career in Tuscaloosa – just don’t expect a major impact on the field this season.
Alabama futures bets to make based on QB competition
- Over 9.5 wins: +115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
- To win the SEC Championship: +750 at bet365 Sportsbook
Over 9.5 wins
Alabama opens the season on the road against Florida State. This would typically be a tough matchup, but the Seminoles are coming off an incredibly disappointing two-win season. The early odds FanDuel Sportsbook lists the Crimson Tide as 8.5-point favorites.
UL Monroe, Wisconsin, and Eastern Illinois round out the non-conference schedule. The Badgers will be the most difficult test, but Alabama had no problem imposing its will in a 42-10 victory at Camp Randall Stadium last season.
If the Crimson Tide wins all four non-conference games, hitting over 9.5 wins will require no more than two losses in SEC play. Alabama’s conference schedule starts on the road against Georgia, but the Tide benefit from a bye the week before.
A trying three-game stretch against Tennessee, South Carolina and LSU awaits in the year’s second half. Luckily, two of the three matchups are at Bryant-Denny Stadium, and Alabama has another bye between the South Carolina and LSU matchups.
The Crimson Tide don’t have the easiest schedule, but Simpson’s experience could go a long way if he’s named Alabama’s starting QB. Being a full-time starter can be overwhelming, but Simpson has seen what it takes to lead and win after sitting behind Young and Milroe for the past three years.
To win the SEC Championship
Bet365 Sportsbook gives Alabama the fourth-best odds to win the SEC, trailing Texas (+200), Georgia (+400) and Tennessee (+700). Every other team has +1000 odds or longer.
If you’ve got faith in the Crimson Tide surpassing 9.5 wins, betting DeBoer’s squad to win the SEC Championship goes hand-in-hand. Last season, Georgia earned a spot in the conference title game with 10 wins. The transfer portal, NIL, and conference realignment have evened the playing field in the SEC, making it unlikely for a team to run the table with a perfect conference record.
Whichever QB earns the starting job will benefit from the return of three starting offensive linemen and RB Jam Miller. WRs Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard are also back after leading Alabama in most receiving stats last season. There wasn’t much pass-catching depth beyond the top two, so the Crimson Tide grabbed former Miami WR Isaiah Horton from the transfer portal.
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