General
The College Football Playoff semifinal kicks off Thursday night when Notre Dame and Penn State go toe-to-toe in the Orange Bowl.
Both programs are known for falling short in big games, and only one can flip that narrative by punching a ticket to the CFP national championship.
Most of the CFP matchups have been duds, but the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions seem poised to deliver a must-see matchup. The teams are evenly matched, as evidenced by the one-point spread favoring Notre Dame.
Picking a winner is difficult because the Fighting Irish and Nittany Lions have left no doubt in their CFP victories. If you’re looking for a team to back, consider my expert betting picks for Notre Dame versus Penn State.
RELATED: Check out our College Football Playoff betting guide
Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions and best bets
- Penn State moneyline: +100 at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Under 45.5 points: -115 at DraftKings Sportsbook
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
According to TeamRankings, the under is 4-0 in Notre Dame and Penn State’s CFP games. Each defense allows fewer than 16 points per game and scoring will be at a premium.
Notre Dame has been injury-plagued this season and took a few more hits in the Sugar Bowl when RB Jeremiyah Love, DL Howard Cross III and S Xavier Watts got banged up. All three are seemingly tracking to play Thursday night, but the Irish already have lost DL Rylie Mills and TE Cooper Flanagan to season-ending injuries in the CFP.
Penn State is also dealing with an injury to star DE Abdul Carter, but the Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year is expected to suit up. The Nittany Lions have a two-day rest advantage over the Fighting Irish, which could make a huge difference.
Notre Dame’s run-heavy offense doesn’t leave much room for error, and Love’s injury could be a major blow. Love missed a chunk of the Georgia game and only tallied six carries for 19 yards. If Love is limited again, the Irish won’t have their leading rusher versus a Penn State defense allowing the third-fewest rushing touchdowns.
Notre Dame led for the entirety of the first-round matchup with Indiana and briefly trailed by a field goal in the quarterfinal against Georgia. The Fighting Irish have been in control for most of the CFP and could find themselves in an uncomfortable position if Penn State maintains an early lead.
QB Riley Leonard is a great runner but far less reliable as a passer. If Leonard is forced to air it out to mount a comeback, it could spell trouble for Notre Dame. Getting a lead on the Fighting Irish’s stout defense is easier said than done, but the Nittany Lions have elite talent on offense.
In the Big Ten Championship and two CFP games, RBs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton combined for 610 rushing yards and six total touchdowns. TE Tyler Warren is a reliable pass catcher fresh off a two-touchdown performance against Boise State.
No defense has forced more turnovers than Notre Dame, and ball security is paramount for Penn State. If the Nittany Lions play a clean game, I expect head coach James Franklin’s squad to earn an outright victory.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State moneyline odds analysis
Why Notre Dame could win as the favorite
Best odds: -115 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Notre Dame has been an extremely reliable team to wager on. The Fighting Irish are 11-2-1 against the spread (ATS) with covers in nine straight games.
Head coach Marcus Freeman provides a notable coaching edge. Penn State is known for crumbling in big games, and Franklin is 5-12 ATS versus teams ranked in the top five. The Irish checked in at No. 5 in the final CFP rankings.
Leonard only threw for 90 yards in the CFP quarterfinal, but Notre Dame doesn’t need the QB to be an elite passer. The Fighting Irish average 217 rushing yards per game and form a great duo with the ball-hawking defense. Notre Dame allows the second-fewest points per game and will need a lockdown performance if the offense is limited because of Love’s injury.
Why Penn State could win as the underdog
Best odds: +100 at Caesars Sportsbook
Notre Dame’s defense has surrendered fewer than 70 rushing yards in both CFP matchups, and QB Drew Allar must step up if Penn State isn’t moving the ball on the ground. Warren will get most of the targets and also can make an impact as a runner.
Warren has 197 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground but only one carry for six yards in the CFP. Penn State may be saving Warren’s carries for a stronger opponent like Notre Dame.
Stuffing the Fighting Irish’s run game is a must. Doing so would allow Carter and DE Dani Dennis-Sutton to pin their ears back and add to their 17.5 combined sacks.
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