First Look: Houston vs. Duke predictions, picks and best bets for Final Four matchup
For only the second time since the NCAA Tournament first expanded in 1979, the Final Four will feature all four No. 1 seeds: Auburn, Florida, Houston, and Duke. The latter two teams, Houston and Duke, will battle on CBS this Saturday, April 5, at 8:49 PM ET.
Can the Cougars finally get over the hump and get one step closer to a national championship under Kelvin Sampson, or will Cooper Flagg propel Duke to another title game?
The Blue Devils are 5.5-point favorites, according to the latest March Madness odds. The total is hovering around 136.5. Let’s get into my Houston vs. Duke predictions and best bets for Saturday night.
Houston vs. Duke Predictions and best bets for Final Four
- Duke Blue Devils -5.5: -105 at DraftKings
- Under 136.5 Points: -110 at bet365
- Duke to win and Cooper Flagg to score 15+ points: -125 at FanDuel
*NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Houston has had a tremendous campaign, continuing its dominance on the defensive end of the floor and the offensive glass while also improving substantially on offense.
The Cougars have been a top-five team in turnovers per game and 3-point shooting percentage, which has helped them tremendously reduce their offensive dry spells.
However, Houston still lacks enough firepower to keep up with Duke, the best team in the history of KenPom’s adjusted efficiency margin metric. The Blue Devils started the 2024-25 regular season slow offensively, but have been dynamite during the second half of the year.
In fact, Duke has shot 52.4% from the floor, 40.8% from 3-point range, and 82.3% from the charity stripe while committing merely 8.0 turnovers per game over its past 14 outings.
I don’t think Duke can be beaten at this point. The Blue Devils are playing their best basketball at the right time, and Houston’s only real chance would be if it hit a ton of 3-pointers.
Unfortunately for Houston, Duke has held its past six opponents to just 28.1% shooting from deep. The Cougars could keep it close for a while, but Duke will break away in a somewhat low-scoring game by the final horn.
In addition, expect Flagg to continue his red-hot play by scoring at least 15 points, which he has done in 12 of his past 13 outings, not including the game against Georgia Tech when he suffered an untimely ankle injury.
Houston vs. Duke moneyline odds analysis
On Monday afternoon, the Duke Blue Devils (-250) were listed as 5.5-point favorites over the Houston Cougars (+205) ahead of their Final Four game this weekend.
Duke has been one of the best teams this season against the spread, boasting a 25-13 ATS record. Meanwhile, the Cougars are a respectable 20-17-1 against the spread entering this matchup.
Why Duke could win as the favorite
Best odds: -230 at FanDuel
Duke is the country’s most well-balanced and talented team, led by veteran guard Tyrese Proctor and freshmen sensations Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel.
The “moment” has in no way, shape, or form looked too big for Flagg, Knueppel, or any of the Blue Devils’ other talented players, so it should not be a surprise that they have cruised through the 2025 NCAA Tournament thus far.
The Blue Devils have the highest adjusted efficiency margin of any team in the Kenpom.com database, meaning that this year’s Duke team might be one of the greatest in recent memory and possibly of all time.
Duke has the best offense in the country and does not have weak spots on either end of the floor, meaning that to beat the Blue Devils, an opponent has to play their absolute best. There is no margin for error.
Why Houston could win as the underdog
Best odds: +210 at Caesars
This Houston team is one of college basketball’s most physical and relentless defensive teams this season. The Cougs rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency (per Kenpom.com), first in opponent points per game, second in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 13th in block percentage nationally.
A few key things differentiate this season’s Houston team from previous ones: three-point shooting, ball handling, and overall offensive efficiency. Under head coach Kelvin Sampson, the Cougs have always been terrific in offensive rebounding and defense.
However, during the 2024-25 season, Houston has also managed to be one of the top 3-point-shooting teams in the country (third in 3P%), and it scarcely turns the ball over (fourth in turnovers per game).
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