General
College basketball has reached that time of year again.
Talk of brackets, championships and national awards has dominated many of the discussions about the sport as the season enters the final stretch before March Madness.
Auburn and Duke are often at the forefront of those conversations. Sometimes it’s a discussion as to who’s the best team in the country, other times it’s comparing the best players from each of those two teams and who out of the two deserves national recognition.
Those two players are Auburn’s Johni Broome and Duke’s Cooper Flagg, the two most captivating players in men’s college basketball this season and likely the only two with a realistic shot at winning National Player of the Year.
Both have made a strong case throughout this season, but that hasn’t stopped fans on both sides from having their minds made up on who the best player in the country is.
With all that said, here’s a comparison of the two players this season and a detailed look at Broome and Flagg’s cases for the award:
What the stats say
Cooper Flagg
Points per game: 19.4
Rebounds per game: 7.6
Assists per game: 4.1
Blocks per game: 1.1
Steals per game: 1.5
Raw shooting percentage: 49%
True shooting percentage: 60%
Johni Broome
Points per game: 18.6
Rebounds per game: 11.1
Assists per game: 3.4
Blocks per game: 2.6
Steals per game: 0.7
Raw shooting percentage: 50.7%
True shooting percentage: 55.3%
Analysis
When comparing Broome and Flagg’s stats this season, there’s not much to separate the two. The biggest discrepancy is in rebounds, where Broome has the edge, but that can be attributed to Broome’s size advantage and role as a post player.
The two different roles occupied by each player makes comparing them difficult, but their overall production level in what they do is similar.
Broome is utilized mainly as a back to the basket post player on offense, operating as both a scorer and playmaker in the low post. He’s capable of popping out and scoring on the perimeter, but is shooting just 30.3% from 3-point range on the season and 32.1% in conference play.
His effectiveness in the post allows Auburn to run offense through him. If teams decide to guard him with a single defender, Broome is often able to take advantage of the matchup and score in the post himself. When double-teamed, he’s an impressive passer, boasting a 23.6% assist rate and a low turnover rate at 8.8%.
Duke utilizes Flagg a little differently. The likely future No. 1 pick is slightly smaller, but more versatile than Broome, attacking more off the bounce than from the post.
Flagg can score both inside and out — like Broome — but has proven more efficient as a 3-point shooter. He’s shooting 37.5% from 3 on the season and a hot 44.6% in ACC play, doing so on significantly more attempts than Broome.
Flagg is slightly less efficient from inside the arc this season, but shoots over 20 percentage points better than Broome from the free throw line on 42 more attempts.
The caveat that comes with these numbers is strength of schedule. Both Broome and Flagg played a similarly tough non-conference schedule — including a head-to-head matchup that Flagg won — but Flagg has played a significantly weaker conference schedule, ranking Duke’s overall strength of schedule much lower than Auburn’s.
Flagg has played in nine Quad I games this season compared to 14 for Broome. In Quad I games, Flagg just barely edges out Broome in points averaging 20.7 compared to Broome’s 20.2.
What the analytics say
Cooper Flagg
Plus/Minus: 455
KenPom Player of the Year rating: 2.824 (No. 1 in the country)
KenPom offensive rating: 122.6
KenPom Game MVPs: 14 (28 games played)
EvanMiya Bayesian performance rating: 10.35
EvanMiya Bayesian offensive performance rating: 5.93
EvanMiya Bayesian defensive performance rating: 4.42
Johni Broome
Plus/Minus: 323
KenPom Player of the Year rating: 2.384 (No. 2 in the country)
KenPom offensive rating: 123.8
KenPom Game MVPs: 15 (25 games played)
EvanMiya Bayesian performance rating: 10.13
EvanMiya Bayesian offensive performance rating: 6.97
EvanMiya Bayesian defensive performance rating: 3.16
Analysis
Not as much analysis is needed for this section, but there are a few takeaways.
The biggest thing that jumps out is Broome seems to have an analytical edge over Flagg offensively. Both KenPom and EvanMiya’s offensive ratings favor Broome, but Flagg still isn’t far behind.
Flagg has an edge over Broome in defensive rating, but it creates an interesting question of which player offers more value to their team. Flagg’s plus/minus is higher than Broome’s but he has played in three more games due to Broome missing time with an ankle injury.
Broome has one more KenPom Game MVP than Flagg despite playing in fewer games, but does that speak more to the player himself, or the teammates he’s competing with for that award each game?
The argument for each player
Cooper Flagg
If you talk to just about any NBA scout, executive or coach, they’ll tell you that Cooper Flagg is the most talented college basketball player in the country.
It’s the reason why many mock drafts have him as the projected No. 1 pick, while Broome is projected anywhere between late first round and undrafted.
As described by the stats and numbers above, Flagg can do just about everything on the court. He’s skilled, athletic, a consistent shooter and more than holds his own defensively despite his youth. He’s also the most valuable player on a Duke team that ranks No. 2 in the AP Poll, No. 1 in both KenPom and EvanMiya and even holds a head-to-head win over Auburn.
Auburn has proven it can win without Broome, going 3-0 while he was out with an ankle injury. Duke has yet to prove the same, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it’s not also capable, given it hasn’t had to.
While Duke has played a considerably weaker schedule, Flagg has played well against top competition. He scored 22 against Auburn, 26 against Kentucky and 24 at Arizona early in the season.
Flagg and Duke can’t control the strength of the ACC, but the freshman from Maine’s talent is undeniable.
Johni Broome
There’s hardly been a more dominant player in college basketball than Broome this season.
He comfortably averages a double-double, demands attention from typically at least two, if not more players every possession and is the focal point of everything Auburn does offensively.
Broome is the driving force and most valuable piece of an Auburn team that is having its best season in program history. He has shown the ability to take over games and is a consistent force in the paint, even against a loaded Southeastern Conference.
His numbers are slightly behind Flagg’s in a few areas, but strength of schedule and Broome playing through multiple injuries are both factors to consider when evaluating his stats. Against Tennessee, a top five team, Broome returned after missing two weeks with a sprained ankle to put up a double-double, along with supplying the game-winning assist.
In Auburn’s biggest win of the season over Alabama, he knocked down two 3-pointers to spark a 9-0 Auburn run at the beginning of the game, and finished the day with 19 points, 14 rebounds and six assists.
His numbers rank amongst the best in college basketball and he’s doing it in arguably the toughest league in the history of the sport.
Peter Rauterkus covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on X at @peter_rauterkus or email him at [email protected]m
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