Despite a scary-looking ankle injury just over one week ago, Cooper Flagg helped the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils cruise past their first-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament.

Flagg and the Blue Devils will now face the No. 9 Baylor Bears in the Sweet 16. This heavyweight matchup between Duke and Baylor in the Round of 32 will take place on Sunday at 2:40 PM EST on CBS.

On Saturday, the latest March Madness odds have Blue Devils (-750) were heavy 12-point favorites over the Baylor Bears (+550), and the point total was 143.5. Keep reading below for our Duke vs. Baylor predictions and best bets for this Round of 32 matchup and the best March Madness betting sites.

Duke vs. Baylor predictions and best bets for Round of 32

• Baylor +12: -110 at Caesars
• Over 143.5: -115 at FanDuel

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

The Baylor Bears’ most significant issue has been on defense in recent years; they have ranked 107th and 72nd in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom) in 2023 and 2024, respectively.

The 2024-25 campaign started similarly, with the Bears giving up 101 points to Gonzaga in their season opener. However, Baylor has been a much more focused defensive team in recent weeks, holding their past five opponents before Mississippi State to just 38.5% field-goal shooting and 30% from 3-point land.

This improvement has allowed the Bears to remain competitive in games against elite competition like Texas Tech and Houston despite the fact they have shot the ball horribly in that stretch. Additionally, this will be the first time that Duke has faced a non-ACC team (not counting Mount Saint Mary’s) in quite some team, and, as we have seen, that conference has been mediocre this season.

For the point total, I like the over at 144. The Bears’ offense can score points, even against this stifling and versatile Duke defense. On the other end, Baylor has been better, but it will not have an answer for Flagg and company, so the Over and Baylor +12 will be my plays.

Duke vs. Baylor moneyline odds analysis

The Duke Blue Devils are a super heavy moneyline favorite at -800 odds on DraftKings. Conversely, the Baylor Bears are significant +550 underdogs despite their recent improvements on the defensive end of the floor.

Why Duke could win as the favorite

Best odds: -750 at Fanatics

Cooper Flagg’s ankle injury has hardly phased him. Even though he was rolled off the floor in a wheelchair against Georgia Tech only nine days ago, Flagg returned for the team’s Round of 64 matchup and dominated in just 22 minutes of play.

Duke didn’t skip a beat with Flagg back in the lineup, posting 93 points on 50% shooting against Mount Saint Mary’s. And the Blue Devils certainly took their foot off the gas in the second half. According to Kenpom.com, Duke is the only team in the country that ranks in the top four in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies.

The Blue Devils also have the highest adjusted efficiency margin since 2002, the first year KenPom tracked these metrics on his site. Baylor’s 57th-ranked defense will have difficulty holding Duke to a reasonable offensive output.

Why Baylor could win as the underdog

Best odds: +550 at BetMGM

The Baylor Bears have not met their lofty expectations entering the 2024-25 season. They only grabbed a No. 9 seed despite being the eighth-ranked team in the preseason AP Poll.

However, Baylor still has a high-octane attack led by star freshman VJ Edgecombe and veteran forward Norchad Omier; the Bears have the 16th-ranked offense and excel on the offensive glass (27th in offensive rebounding percentage).

Recently, Baylor has also found a way to win some tight games or, at least, keep them within striking distance despite poor shooting. Entering their game against Mississippi State, the Bears had shot just 41% from the field and 29% from 3-point range over their past five games (3-2) but had only lost to Texas Tech and Houston by a combined six points.

The primary reason for Baylor’s competitive play over the past few weeks has been its drastic improvement on the defensive end of the floor. It has held its opponents to roughly a 38/30/72 shooting split in that stretch. If the Bears can get hot from deep and continue to play defense at their current level, they have a shot to upset Duke.