Oscar predictions 2024: What we think will win in every category

The 96th Annual Academy Awards will air live on ABC Sunday night at 6 p.m. CT, and while it looks like we’re in for an “Oppenheimer” sweep, we think a few surprises are in store.

Where are the biggest upsets possible? While best picture and director appear to be sewn up, that isn’t necessarily true for best actress, where it looks like a total toss-up between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone.

We’ll help you fill out your ballot and maybe win at your Oscar party with these predictions. Just don’t hold us to them, OK?

READ: Alabama’s 5 biggest moments at the Oscars

ANIMATED SHORT

Will win: War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. Some balk at Wes Anderson winning his first Oscar for a short film, while others think big-name directors ought to stay out of this category. We say hush. If he hasn’t won one by now, who’s to say he ever will? Anderson rules.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will win: The ABCs of Book Banning.

SOUND

Will win: Oppenheimer. You’d think this was an award for things that go boom, but even during the Trinity Test, Nolan and his crew sprinkle it with silence and deep breaths, magnifying the magnitude with eerie subtlety.

Might win: The Zone of Interest. Jonathan Glazer’s film about a the Nazi commandant of Auschwitz and his family’s home next to the camp created a horrifying soundscape of terrors you never actually see on screen, seamlessly elevating every element of the storytelling.

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Maestro. There was much controversy about Bradley Cooper using a prosthetic nose to play famed conductor Leonard Bernstein, so it’s somewhat of a surprise that the Academy would still reward the film for its old-age makeup.

Might win: Poor Things. While you see impressive work throughout Yorgos Lanthimos’ fantasy, you cannot take your eyes off of Willem Dafoe’s face, even when he’s ripping one of those bubble burps.

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Poor Things. Holly Waddington previous worked on period films like “Lincoln” and “Atonement,” but here proves we’re likely to see her in this category for years to come.

Might win: Barbie. The doll’s famous clothes come to life, and with great emphasis, especially as Ken throws various outfits from the window of his Mojo Dojo Casa House.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will win: Barbie. Pink and plastic never looked better. Greta Gerwig, along with production designer Sarah Greenwood and set decorator Katie Spencer, brought the Mattel universe to life and created one of the most memorable visual landscapes to the big screen this year.

Might win: Poor Things. If anything transported you to another world with its sets and other craftwork, it was Lanthimos’ wild fairy tale.

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will win: Godzilla Minus One. The big guy gets an Oscar.

Might win: The Creator. Director Gareth Edwards is one of the best at realizing huge visions with believable effects, here bringing a post-apocalyptic world to life.

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Oppenheimer. Ludwig Göransson went heavy on violin, per Nolan’s request, to go very big with blistering soundscapes as well as quiet and often chilling sounds. The “Can You Hear the Music?” sequence early in the film is among the most haunting and unforgettable tracks of 2023.

Might win: Killers of the Flower Moon. The late, great Robbie Robertson’s final score, a terrific (and at times quite eerie) contribution to his longtime friend Martin Scorsese’s stark adaptation of David Grann book.

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie. This is the ultra-safe pick. Billie Eilish and Finneas have already won, but Oscar voters tend to go for softer ballads (and pop stars).

Might win: “I’m Just Ken” from Barbie. What was the last “silly” song to win this category? You have to go back to 2011, when “Man or Muppet” from “The Muppets” won, with only two nominees. Stuffy Oscar voters apparently don’t dig a giggle in their music. But despite the funny facade, Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt’s opus has the musicality, too, which should be Kenough for a win.

FILM EDITING

Will win: Oppenheimer. Somehow, Nolan’s three-hour drama flies by while jumping timelines in every direction while keeping its proverbial eye on the ball. Seeing the world through its titular character’s eyes (and then swapping points-of-view and color for black-and-white), Jennifer Lame delivered one of the best-edited movies of all time.

Might win: Killers of the Flower Moon. You may ask, what exactly did they cut from a near-four-hour movie? But the real feat is creating a pace that keeps people engrossed during a film of that length, and Thelma Schoonmaker remains one of the masters of the art form.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Oppenheimer. Hoyte van Hoytema stretches the canvas in another Nolan spectacle, but his lens remains just as effective when he frames people sitting and talking in rooms in some of the movie’s most compelling moments. Brilliant work.

Might win: Killers of the Flower Moon. Scorsese’s new go-to DP filmed two of 2023′s most beloved moves with “Killers” and “Barbie,” so it’s possible some voters would reward his entire body of work. And “Killers” would deserve any recognition it got.

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Will win: The Zone of Interest. Jonathan Glazer could surprise in other major categories, so consider this a lock to see he doesn’t go home empty-handed.

Might win: Society of the Snow. A handful of prognosticators once thought this had a shot to sneak into the best picture conversation, but that momentum never materialized.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol.

Might win: Bobi Wine: The People’s President.

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse. The first sequel to win this category since “Toy Story 4″ in 2019, which won just a year after “Into the Spider-verse” did.

Might win: The Boy and the Heron. The Academy loves Hayao Miyazaki, a genius who remains at the top of his game. Don’t count him out.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction. Cord Jefferson’s family drama/satire is filled with clever ideas nicely communicated by a top-notch cast.

Might win: Barbie. Fans fumed when Gerwig didn’t secure a directing nomination, so a win here could make up for that. Note: If it’s an “Oppenheimer” sweep, look for another Nolan win here.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall. Justine Triet has a directing nomination, so it’s clear the Academy feels strongly about her film. If it can’t win that or picture, Triet and Arthur Harari’s screenplay, filled with mystery and unexpected humor, will bring it home.

Might win: The Holdovers. For a minute, Alexander Payne’s dramedy looked like a frontrunner in some big categories, but it lost steam down the stretch. But David Hemingson’s script still has a shot.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph. The surest thing on Sunday night. She’s swept the category all season long. Her Oscar might already be engraved.

Might win: Emily Blunt? Jodie Foster? Can’t really think of a good reason anyone would upset the favorite here.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Robert Downey Jr. Downey will win this, not because he’s arguably the biggest movie star of the last two decades whose career needs a little gold statue cherry on top of it, but because he deserves it thanks to his shrewd, reined-in work as Lewis Strauss, a sort-of Salieri to J. Robert Oppenheimer’s Mozart.

Might win: Ryan Gosling. Is there a bigger “Barbie” boom than we expect? If so, Gosling’s hilarious turn could shock the world.

ACTRESS

Will win: Emma Stone. She won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, but this remains a toss-up. We’re going to say Stone becomes a two-time winner in just seven years.

Might win: Lily Gladstone. Her Globe and SAG wins should indicate she might take it on Sunday. It really is a coin flip here, and Gladstone’s placid presence gave Scorsese’s epic its soul.

ACTOR

Will win: Cillian Murphy. If it’s an “Oppenheimer” sweep, how could you leave out the guy who transformed into the father of the atomic bomb? Already an accomplished actor, Murphy became the unlikely face of an unlikely blockbuster, one few will ever forget.

Might win: Paul Giamatti. If he won, he’d deserve it. At least the Academy recognized his work this time, unlike in 2004 when they snubbed him for his brilliant work in Payne’s “Sideways.”

DIRECTOR

Will win: Christopher Nolan. It’s finally his time. We’re here for the coronation. Give that man his Oscar.

Might win: Jonathan Glazer. If anyone can upend the Nolan train, it’s Glazer. His disciplined depiction of evil at work clearly moved the Academy.

PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer. The unstoppable force. It’s Oppy’s world. We’re just living in it.

Might win: The Zone of Interest. Was it the most “important” film of 2023? Would that matter here? Nothing else really stands a chance, but Glazer’s work and perhaps “Poor Things” would play the role of spoiler.