NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is betting that the second half of the Atlantic hurricane season will be even busier than forecasters first thought.

Forecasters released a hurricane outlook update this week and increased their prediction from “near average” to “above average” as far as the number of storms goes.

The CPC’s original outlook, released in late May, predicted 12-17 named storms (that includes tropical storms and hurricanes), five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes (Category 3 or stronger storms).

The updated outlook, which includes the entire season (which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30), calls for 14-21 named storms, six to 11 hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

NOAA put 70 percent confidence in those numbers, and they include storms that have already formed this season.

An average hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Why the more dire outlook? The record-warm waters of the tropical Atlantic are to blame, according to forecasters.

Those warmer sea temperatures are expected to temper the effects of El Nino, a global climate phenomenon that can put a damper on the Atlantic hurricane season by increasing wind shear over the tropics.

According to NOAA El Nino “usually results in atmospheric conditions that help to lessen tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. So far, those limiting conditions have been slow to develop and climate scientists are forecasting that the associated impacts that tend to limit tropical cyclone activity may not be in place for much of the remaining hurricane season.”

The tropical Atlantic has been quiet lately but had a busy start to the season. There have been five named storms already, including one hurricane, Don, which formed in mid-July but didn’t affect land.

There are no storms expected to form in the tropical Atlantic in at least the next seven days, according to forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.