The Third Saturday in October may not have a pair of undefeated records on the line, but the game carries massive implications for the SEC championship and College Football Playoff.

Alabama and Tennessee started the year strong but fell flat in upset losses during Week 6. The loser Saturday faces an uphill battle to achieve preseason expectations.

The Crimson Tide are a slight favorite in one of the biggest games of the regular season.

Alabama vs. Tennessee predictions and best bets

Tennessee +3: -110 odds at BetMGM

Germie Bernard over 52.5 receiving yards: -119 odds at Caesars

I don’t trust the Tide to cover three points in a tough road environment at Neyland Stadium. Tennessee has won 18 of its previous 19 home games, and the loss came against No. 1 Georgia last season.

Alabama has allowed 25 points or more in three straight games. Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava has struggled, but the outcome of the game doesn’t rest on his shoulders.

Alabama has been brutal at stopping the run in recent weeks, and a clash with Tennessee’s dominant rushing attack doesn’t project well.

The Volunteers rush for 246 yards per game, and RB Dylan Sampson ranks second nationally in touchdown runs. Sampson is fresh off a 112-yard, three-touchdown performance in a win over Florida.

Iamaleava hasn’t been consistent, but a big performance from Sampson will take the pressure off Tennessee’s freshman passer.

I also predict Alabama WR Germie Bernard to continue posting solid numbers. The Washington transfer has improved week-over-week, setting season highs in receiving yards in the last two games.

Bernard went for 70 yards against Vanderbilt and 89 yards against South Carolina. The Las Vegas native will get downfield targets from QB Jalen Milroe thanks to the attention drawn by WR Ryan Williams.

Alabama vs. Tennessee moneyline odds analysis

Why Alabama could win as the favorite

Best odds: -148 at DraftKings

Alabama has won 16 of the past 17 meetings with Tennessee, and the Volunteers have yet to face a QB of Milroe’s caliber.

Milroe has been efficient through the air, tallying 310 yards or more in two of the last three games. He’s also rushed for two touchdowns in all but one game.

However, Milroe must protect the ball to leave Neyland Stadium with a win. The Heisman hopeful has thrown an interception in three straight matchups.

The Tide’s offense has averaged only 94 rushing yards in the previous two games, and those numbers need to elevate. Tennessee has a phenomenal defense that can shut down Alabama if it’s on Milroe to do it all.

Alabama’s defense must also improve to limit the Volunteers’ possessions and minimize Neyland Stadium’s impact. The Crimson Tide surrender the fifth-most points per game in the SEC and haven’t been able to get off the field on third downs.

Why Tennessee could win as the underdog

Best odds: +130 at bet365

Tennessee head coach Josh Heupel is supposed to be a QB whisperer, but Nico has yet to surpass 215 passing yards against an FBS defense. Iamaleava’s last multi-touchdown game was in Week 2.

Delivering accurate passes, especially on deep balls, would go a long way in taking down the Crimson Tide.

Luckily, Tennessee can lean on Sampson against an Alabama defense that’s allowed 129 rushing yards per game.

Iamaleava also will get support from the Volunteers’ top-notch defense. The unit ranks top four nationally in yards and points allowed per game.

The Volunteers are excellent at preventing explosive plays of 20+ yards, a hallmark of Alabama’s offense.

However, Tennessee LB and team captain Keenan Pili’s season has been cut short because of an ACL tear. Pili provided a veteran presence in his sixth season, leading the team in total tackles.

Tennessee should be prepared for Alabama to test the depth of the LB corps in Knoxville.