There’s been widespread speculation on how Texas would handle life in the SEC. The Longhorns are the top team in the AP college football poll and have the best odds to win the national championship, but coach Steve Sarkisian’s squad hasn’t been tested yet.

That’s due to change Saturday night when Georgia rolls into DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Texas opened as a slight favorite and the spread grew throughout the week.

Georgia vs. Texas predictions and best bets

• Texas -4.5: -115 odds at Caesars
• Under 56.5 total points: -108 odds at FanDuel

This iteration of the Bulldogs hasn’t lived up to the standard set by teams of years past. Georgia got demolished in the first half against Alabama and couldn’t put away one-win Mississippi State at home last week in a 41-31 victory.

I’d be more inclined to back UGA if Texas had a draining matchup in the Red River Rivalry versus Oklahoma. However, that’s the antithesis of how the game unfolded.

The Sooners opened the scoring in the first quarter before the Longhorns took control and won, 34-3. QB Quinn Ewers was rusty in his first start since Week 3, but that was shaken off as the game progressed.

I’m betting on Texas to pass its first SEC test with flying colors. The Longhorns appear to be college football’s most complete team, ranking top seven in offensive and defensive scoring.

If Ewers and the offense have another slow start, Texas’ defense is more than capable of containing Georgia. The Longhorns lead FBS in points allowed per game (6.3) and have been particularly dominant against the rush.

Georgia hasn’t run the ball effectively, and an UGA victory could rest on QB Carson Beck’s shoulders. With 19 sacks and seven interceptions on the year, that’s a matchup advantage for the team in burnt orange.

My best bet for this matchup is Texas -4.5. I also predict Georgia’s scoring to be limited, leading to an under.

Georgia vs. Texas moneyline odds analysis

Why Texas could win as the favorite

Best odds: -198 at DraftKings

The Longhorns are extremely balanced offensively. Georgia can’t slow the unit down by focusing on one player.

Three Texas ball carriers have 220+ yards, and four pass catchers have 240+ yards. With playmakers all over the field, the Longhorns are scoring 43 points per game.

If Georgia can supply pressure and make Ewers uncomfortable, it could cause Texas’ offense to struggle for the first time. However, it won’t be easy considering how quickly Ewers throws the ball.

The Longhorns have only given up six sacks on the year; second-best in the SEC.

Why Georgia could win as the underdog

Best odds: +175 at Fanatics

The word “underdog” is rarely uttered in Athens. This is the first time Georgia hasn’t been favored to win, including UGA’s matchup in Tuscaloosa versus Alabama.

Coaches like Kirby Smart who lead powerhouse programs often try to manufacture an underdog mentality in their players. On Saturday, the Bulldogs actually should have a chip on their shoulders.

The Bulldogs’ defense needs to show up for UGA to leave Texas with a victory. Georgia has surrendered 30+ points in two of its last three games, and the unit only has 11 sacks.

If Texas lights up the scoreboard early, things could get out of hand before halftime.

Georgia also must get its rushing attack going. Power running has been a staple for the Bulldogs, but not in 2024.

RB Trevor Etienne has yet to crack 90 yards in a game. Continuing to use him as a pass catcher could be a successful formula. Etienne is a playmaker, and Georgia would benefit from giving him an extended workload through the air if he can’t find room to run on handoffs.

However, if nothing is working on the ground, a one-dimensional offense has a slim chance of beating Texas.