No. 1 Alabama faces the test it needs at Tennessee
The timing of this one is interesting in a few ways.
Alabama, playing with a No. 1 ranking for the first time in 20 seasons, heads to Knoxville for a 6 p.m. CT game against a suddenly snake bitten Tennessee. After opening the season 18-3, the Vols lost three of its last four — the last two on deep buzzer beaters.
The Crimson Tide (22-3, 12-0 SEC) have been steadily checking boxes through this historic run but have a stigma for not handling physical teams particularly well. And, though it’s a projected NCAA tournament top-seed, it can be one bruiser of a game from missed expectations.
So, the timing of an injury to center Charles Bediako isn’t ideal heading to Thompson-Boling Arena with its perfect SEC record facing what coach Nate Oats calls “one of the toughest and most physical teams in the country every year, particularly this year.”
Despite the consecutive last-second losses to Vanderbilt and Missouri, Tennessee enters as the nation’s top defensive team according to KenPom’s efficiency ranking. The Vols are also No. 1 in effective field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage on the defensive end. And the 56.3 points yielded on average is third best so Alabama’s sixth-best scoring offense is meeting a true test head on.
“We had this game circled for a while,” Alabama forward Noah Gurley said. “We knew this would be a big one and we only get them once so regardless if we’re ranked No. 1 or not, we need this game. We’ve had two great days of practice preparing for it.”
The fifth-year senior could get the start if Bediako’s minor knee injury sidelines the sophomore but Oats said the 7-footer has been improving daily. Bediako is a key defensive weapon in the paint who frustrated reigning national player of the year Oscar Tshiebwe in Alabama’s 78-52 blowout of Kentucky on Jan. 7.
“They’ve very aggressive, very physical,” Gurley said. “They force a lot of turnovers so we have to be smart with the ball and strong with the ball. If we take care of the ball, I’m sure we’ll have a good shot.”
The Vols (19-6, 8-4) are forcing 15.5 turnovers a game — 330th most in Division I. Alabama, meanwhile, has made strides in limiting turnovers in recent weeks. Its season average is 14.1 a game but cut that down to 10.7 in conference play.
Tennessee, however, brings a different look from most of the other league opponents. It forces 8.8 steals a game (29th nationally) and allowed more than 78 points just once. Timing striking again, that 86-point allowance came in Saturday’s loss to Missouri. For context, Alabama averages 83.4 points a game with four finals in triple figures.
How that translates against a tough Tennessee team will be the barometer for how far this team’s come since struggles in losses to UConn, Gonzaga and Oklahoma.
“I think we’ve shown up against some of the physical teams we’ve played and we haven’t against others,” Oats said. “We’ve been a little inconsonant. I think UConn did a number on us. Michigan State is a physical team and we played well against them. Houston is a real physical team and we played really well against Houston.
“There’s been enough tough physical teams we’ve played that we’ve shown we’re more than capable of doing it, it hasn’t been … Oklahoma was physical and we weren’t very good against them. So we’d like for the team that showed up against Houston and Michigan State to show up down there in Knoxville.”
Offensively, the Vols aren’t quite as balanced with a 72.5-point scoring average that’s 157th nationally. In terms of efficiency, it’s No. 1 defense (86.6) is paired with a No. 51 offense (112.3) on KenPom while Alabama is one of only two teams with top-15 in both. The Tide’s defensive efficiency is No. 6 (89.9) with the offense 13th (117.4).
In terms of predicted outcomes, this is the only game left on Alabama’s schedule that KenPom forecasts a loss. It gives the Tide a 43% chance of winning Wednesday before pegging the next two games with Georgia and South Carolina at 96%.
A win Wednesday would equal more history since a 23-3 record would give Alabama its best record through 26 games in program history.
Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.