The Jacksonville Jaguars will take a short flight south in the Sunshine State to Hard Rock Stadium to square off with the Miami Dolphins in Week 1.

The Dolphins won 11 games last season for the first time since 2008, and oddsmakers give an edge to Miami in the NFL odds for Week 1.

The sky was the limit for the Jaguars in 2023, but a down year from Trevor Lawrence left Jacksonville out of the playoffs.

The start of a new season brings a sense of hope for all teams and the result of Jaguars vs. Dolphins promises to set the tone for each squad’s 2024 campaign.

NFL Week 1 Jaguars vs. Dolphins odds

Miami’s high-speed offense left teams in the dust last season. The Dolphins led the league in yards per game and scored 29 points per week.

Jacksonville’s defense was average statistically, and the offense added skill players Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. The total in Jaguars vs. Dolphins is hovering around 49, and only Rams vs. Lions has a higher over/under.

Based on the 2023 records, the Dolphins should be a runaway favorite. However, Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami at -185 on the moneyline and +165 (BetMGM) for Jacksonville.

The point spread opened at Dolphins -3.5, and there’s been little line movement since the odds were released.

Why Miami could win as the favorite

Lawrence’s 14 interceptions were the fourth most in 2023, and the Dolphins’ defensive backs will be itching to jump routes and cause more headaches for the Jaguars’ offense.

Miami’s 56 sacks ranked third and pressuring Lawrence likely would result in a few turnover-worthy passes.

QB Tua Tagovailoa became one of the highest-paid players in the NFL this offseason, and keeping his end of the deal in Week 1 would make it difficult for Jacksonville to keep up.

Tyreek Hill was the first WR voted No. 1 in the NFL Top 100 after nearly breaking Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record.

Hill forces opposing defenses to make a difficult decision: spread the defense out and watch Hill light up the stat sheet or give Hill additional coverage and let Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane speed by on big plays.

Why Jacksonville could win as the underdog

Tagovailoa typically throws the ball quickly to allow Miami’s playmakers to work magic with their legs. Luckily, Jacksonville is equipped with a pair of top-tier pass rushers in Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, combining for 27.5 sacks in 2023.

Hines-Allen and Walker must be at their best to keep the Dolphins’ offense off balance. Tagovailoa also tossed 14 picks last season.

Forcing timely turnovers is an excellent way to throw a wrench in Miami head coach Mike McDaniel’s gameplan.

Calvin Ridley led the Jaguars in receiving yards and touchdowns last season ago. His departure could be detrimental if the additions of Davis and Thomas Jr. don’t pan out.

Davis was hot and cold in 2023, recording 85+ yards in four games and being held without a reception in five matchups. The 25-year-old must find consistency in Week 1 to help Jacksonville come out on top.

Thomas Jr. was an underrated WR prospect in the 2023 NFL Draft, tallying 1,079 yards and 15 touchdowns with LSU.

Best Jaguars vs. Dolphins player prop bet

Christian Kirk Any Time TD

Odds: +180 at DraftKings

Lawrence and Christian Kirk have been a strong duo since 2022, when Kirk joined the Jaguars. In two seasons, Kirk amassed 1,895 yards and 11 touchdowns. Most of that production came in year one, when the former Texas A&M Aggie was Lawrence’s top option.

Kirk’s numbers declined in 2023, when Ridley became Lawrence’s go-to guy and Kirk missed five games because of injury. With Ridley gone, Kirk should return to a role as Jacksonville’s top pass catcher.

It’s possible Davis or Thomas Jr. build chemistry with Lawrence and eventually surpass Kirk on the depth chart, but solidifying a strong QB-WR connection takes time. Thanks to Lawrence’s comfort with Kirk, Christian can be trusted as Lawrence’s first look in the red zone in Week 1.