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NASCAR picks: Our expert Jack Link’s 500 predictions and best bets for Talladega

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The green flag drops on the Jack Link’s 500 at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. This will be the 112th running of a NASCAR Cup Series race at the 1.5-mile asphalt oval. Wagering at this site can be fun, yet also highly risky and often unpredictable.

Talladega is a prime drafting track that is infamous for dramatic and numerous wrecks. The long-used phrase “The Big One” refers to significant multi-car wrecks at superspeedways like TS. Any driver is always in danger of getting caught up in a crash at any time.

Targeting a winner in a superspeedway event is always a big challenge. Pack racing and wrecks will frequently lead to a lost wager. But you can also get healthy payouts when your bets hit the mark.

Markets are also available on top 3, top 5 and top 10 finishers, and driver props add to the wagering excitement at Talladega. Spread your bets out, consider using less units overall, and do not hesitate to take chances on some longer shots.

We focus on the best possible bets for this week’s Cup event, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. You can lock in some more bets after qualifying, but starting positions are less meaningful at a site where we might not see a winner decided until late.

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines prior to the race to ensure you get the best odds.

Four best Jack Link’s 500 outright winner bets

  • William Byron (+1200 at DraftKings): The Hendrick Motorsports star finished in the top 3 in two of his last three Talladega starts.
  • Ryan Blaney (+1000 at DraftKings): Has the best all-time Driver Rating among active drivers at Talladega (91.2).
  • Denny Hamlin (+1400 at DraftKings): A two-time winner at Talladega, he also has 11 runner-up finishes, second-most among all drivers.
  • Christopher Bell (+1600 at DraftKings): At Atlanta, he demonstrated the ability to prevail at a drafting track. Bell already has three wins this season.

Jack Link’s 500 alternate markets to consider betting

Top 3 Finishers:

Top 5 Finishers:

Top 10 Finishers:

NOTE: John Hunter Nemechek is at +250 and has two eighth place finishes in four TS starts, plus he will feature Jack Link’s as a sponsor, too.

  • Driver Prop: William Byron +300 over Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano
  • Race Prop: Top Chevrolet – William Byron (+500)
  • Race Prop: Winning Manufacturer – Toyota (+270)

2025 Jack Link’s 500 winner odds

Odds current as of April 25 on DraftKings

  • Ryan Blaney +1000
  • Brad Keselowski +1000
  • Kyle Busch +1100
  • Joey Logano +1100
  • William Byron +1200
  • Kyle Larson +1400
  • Denny Hamlin +1400
  • Tyler Reddick +1600
  • Christopher Bell +1600
  • Chase Elliott +1600
  • Chase Briscoe +1600
  • Austin Cindric +1600
  • Bubba Wallace +2000
  • Alex Bowman +2000
  • Michael McDowell +2200
  • Todd Gilliland +2500
  • Ross Chastain +2500
  • Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2800
  • Chris Buescher +3000
  • Ty Dillon +3500
  • Ty Gibbs +4000
  • Josh Berry +4000
  • Erik Jones +4000
  • Daniel Suarez +4000
  • Carson Hocevar +4000
  • Ryan Preece +4500
  • Austin Dillon +4500

Jack Link’s 500 betting favorites

Talladega has produced nine different winners in the last nine Cup races at the site, the longest streak ever at TS without a repeat winner.

The race winner has started 10th or lower in nine of the least TS Cup events. The driver leading the most laps has failed to win the last nine Talladega races. Nine of the last 16 races at this site have ended with a last lap pass.

Blaney is a three-time winner at the site with two runner-up showings. At comparable tracks this season, Blaney finished seventh at Daytona and fourth at Atlanta to open the season.

Brad Keselowski leads all active drivers with six Talladega wins. He finished second in both races at the site in 2024. His Driver Rating of 87.7 is third-best all time at TS. He did wreck at Atlanta earlier this year and doesn’t have a top 10 finish yet in 2025, but this could certainly be the track where Keselowski regains his better form.

William Byron has won three of the last 12 drafting track races and he is tied for the most points earned in the Next Gen car at Talladega (240). The current points leader in the Cup standings has a 30-point edge over second place. He leads all drivers at TS in Average Finish (14.5).

Byron is one of my favorite picks to win this week. He fits the profile of the ongoing trend at TS, with new winners every year.

Denny Hamlin is currently in second place in the points standings. He is the only driver to finish on the lead lap in all nine races so far this season, which should be noted at such a crash-prone track as Talladega. Some good luck is needed at the site.

Jack Link’s 500 contenders

Tyler Reddick is the defending champion of this event, and he also finished second at Daytona to open the season. But his win at TS last year was his first top 5 at the site, and his only top 10 in the last seven races there,

Christopher Bell is another top pick who has yet to win at Talladega. His win at Atlanta this season was Joe Gibbs Racing’s first at a drafting track in the Next Gen car.

Chase Elliott boasts the second-best Driver Rating at Talladega (89.4). He has scored two wins at the site. Elliott is tied with Byron for the most points at the site in the Next Gen car.

Bubba Wallace may be on his way to a good season, as his 78 stage points this season are his most-ever after nine races. He won at Talladega at 2021 and should always be considered for a stronger finish at drafting tracks. Wallace has two top 3 finishes in his last four starts this season and is a viable pick to finish in the top 3 at +550.

Jack Link’s 500 sleepers and value bets

Alex Bowman finished fifth in this race last year, and sixth at Daytona earlier this season. You should at least consider him to place in the top 5 at +250.

Michael McDowell always should get a look at drafting tracks. He finished 11th at Daytona earlier this season and you can wager on him to finish in the top 10 at -105.

Todd Gilliland has finished in the top 12 in four of his last five Talladega starts. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. won the second Talladega race last season and finished fourth in this event, so don’t overlook him. In four of his last six Talladega starts, Erik Jones has four top 6 finishes.

Austin Dillon will celebrate his 35th birthday on Sunday and is worth a longer shot at a drafting track. Anthony Alfredo has three top 10 finishes in four Talladega starts. Be sure to consider all the drivers in this tier/group for top 10 wagers.