For the fifth consecutive year, Alabama saw more deaths than births, a problem that an expert says will become increasingly difficult to stop.

In 2024, 52 of 67 Alabama counties saw more deaths than births, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

The problem is so multifaceted and dynamic that it is difficult to pin down exact causes for the shift, said Nyesha Black, the director of demographics at the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Alabama.

“These demographic numbers, the averages, they are a consolidation of people’s stories,” Black told AL.com. “There can be changes from county to county but even just down a street.”

Only eight states saw a higher rate of natural population decline in 2024. Alabama has one of the older populations in the nation, which also results in more deaths, Black said.

“However, a big demographic tipping point was 2020 due to the huge amount of excess deaths from COVID,” she explained.

The borders of the state feature the most consistent patterns of decline. The more central metropolitan areas are where most of the growth is found.

[Can’t see the map? Click here.]

Choctaw County, in the southwest region, saw its population affected more than any other by natural change — or the number of births minus the number of deaths. The population there has declined each year since 2020, according to the Census. In 2024, it shrank by 1.7%. About 1% was due to natural change.

Cherokee, Lowndes, Tallapoosa and Coosa were the next highest in the rate of natural population decline. The common trend is their rural status and aging population, according to Black.

They are all relatively poor compared to state averages and very poor compared to national averages, according to the Census. Each of the five counties has seen more deaths than births in every year since 2020.

Many rural areas are losing younger families and children as they leave in search of better infrastructure in more metropolitan areas. This leads to fewer children being born and an older population which sees more deaths.

“Most commonly, people are moving for jobs, opportunities,” Black said. “If there’s not a robust labor market in an area, then see where people are likely to move in, and more people are likely to move out. So across time, you kind of have this, you know, erosion in population.”

Black added that this cycle can be self-fulfilling. As people leave, the market becomes less strong, leading more people to leave as a result to find better opportunities.

“The school systems get worse, the housing gets worse, these are the types of things that will appeal to young families.”

This pattern could explain why many of the metropolitan centers of the state are the only ones growing. Individuals of child-rearing age are moving there in search of opportunities. Black said that this is why Alabama is seeing most of its natural growth in suburban areas.

The major population centers of Montgomery, Birmingham, and Huntsville and their neighboring counties are some of the only areas in the state to feature natural growth over the last few years. Shelby, Autauga and Marshall counties are all examples of this suburban growth.

Alabama as a whole saw 1,732 more deaths than births last year. Despite those numbers, the state’s population still increased by about 40,000 from 2023. The data shows that this change can be chalked up to both international and domestic migration.

[Can’t see the map? Click here.]

Black said that the trend is in no way unique to Alabama. The entire nation is likely to have a downturn in population over the coming century due to a decrease in childbirth and an aging population.

Black added that the downturn can be hard to stop. She said future and even current consequences of this decrease include the closure or merging of K-12 and college-level schools, like Judson College and Birmingham Southern, economic downturn, and increased need for health care for aging populations.

“It’s a policy prescription to solve this, I believe,” Black said. “It’s tough because it can take such a long time to see results.”

“Once these trains start, it’s on the rails, it just gains momentum. It gets harder and harder to stop.”