After nearly five years, the residents living in unincorporated areas west of Mobile’s city limits will get a chance to vote Tuesday on whether they should be annexed into the city.

At stake for annexation supporters, including Mobile Mayor Sandy Stimpson’s office, is whether the City of Mobile will rise in population from 184,952 to above 200,000 residents. To do so, the city will need to win a majority of support in four distinct areas — the Airport corridor, Cottage Hills, Kings Branch and Orchard Estates. If all four areas vote a majority “Yes” on annexation, then the city’s population will surge above 210,000, which would make Mobile larger than Birmingham (197,493) and Montgomery (200,465). Only fast-growing Huntsville (215,857) will be larger.

The vote isn’t all-or-nothing. If a majority of voters in one of the corridors votes to be annexed into the city, then that corridor will became part of Mobile no matter what voters in the other three corridors decide.

The campaign leading up to Tuesday’s vote has included a few surprises, and the results are expected to be close. Here are five things to watch for during and after Tuesday’s vote:

1. Voter turnout. Mobile has had some anemic returns in recent elections. In last year’s midterm elections, Mobile County was the worst of the state’s five largest counties in the state, with only 34.4% of voters participating in the General Election. The state average was 38.5%. A year before, during the city’s municipal election, turnout was at 24.19%, and represented a notable drop from previous municipal elections when 37% to 46% of registered voters would go to the polls. The argument can be made that the 2022 midterm, and the 2021 municipal elections lacked much political intrigue for Mobile. In addition, turnout is typically higher in the western areas of Mobile during municipal contests. But questions remain on whether Mobile will continue to struggle with voter apathy. And in a low voter turnout contest, anything is possible.

2. Racial demographics. Four distinct areas west of the city’s limits will get a chance to vote on Tuesday. If all 25,806 residents are annexed, the city’s voting age population’s racial demographics will be a razor-thin 46.8% Black-46.7% white. Currently, the voting age gap is 49.7% Black-44.4% white. However, the city could become majority white if voters in two majority Black areas — Kings Branch (population 2,432) and tiny Orchard Estates (695 residents) — decided against joining the city. The largest areas slated for annexation are the Airport corridor (6,107 residents), and Cottage Hills (16,662 residents). Combined, the two areas have a voting age population that is approximately 66% white, 22.4% Black. Organizations like the Southern Poverty Law Center will be taking notice on the outcome. In 2021, the SPLC warned the city that annexation of land with white populations for the city — without annexation of land that includes comparable Black population — would likely violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act because such action would serve to dilute Black political power.

3. Future redistricting. If any of the areas west of the city limits vote in majority to be annexed, it will likely lead to another redistricting process for the Mobile City Council. The council has already been through this once, and with plenty of headaches. The last redistricting of council seats concluded last August. The end result: For the first time in Mobile’s history — a majority of Black council districts was created. The seven-member council has long been represented by four white members, three Black.

4. Stimpson’s political sway. The mayor has been front and center in his support for annexation, but he is also facing opposition in the strangest of places. Martin Scott Catino, who is heading up the Faith Family Freedom Coalition Metro Mobile’s opposition to annexation, has blasted the Stimpson administration for its social policy positions, namely for appointing LGBTQ liaisons in 2022. It’s the first time Stimpson, a Republican, has been called out during a campaign over a conservative policy point. The mayor has opted not to address Catino’s remarks. Stimpson’s focus has been on discussing and promoting what he believes are the economic merits of annexation. The mayor, up until now, has enjoyed plenty of political support in western Mobile, and his overall electoral victories have grown over the years. He defeated former Mayor Sam Jones in 2013 with 53% of the vote. He then followed up in the 2017 rematch with Jones by garnering 57% support. And in 2021, Stimpson’s support grew even further with 62.5% of the overall vote.

5. LGBTQ politics. Catino’s group is advertising a “No” vote on Tuesday, citing their concerns about people living within unincorporated Mobile annexing into a city that supports social policies that are opposite of conservative values. He’s named two concerns: The city’s addition of Diversity, Equity and Inclusion and LGBTQ liaisons. Will the criticism stick? The West Mobile Annexation Committee, a longtime pro-annexation group, argues that social issues have no relationship to underlying issue of annexation. Mobile has a large LGBTQ population, which shows up in strong numbers during annual Pride events. But politically speaking, the LGBTQ population in Mobile hasn’t had strong showings during recent elections.

Kimberly McKeand, the co-plaintiff in the Searcy vs. Strange lawsuit in 2014 — which led to the legalization of same-sex marriage in Alabama — finished sixth out of six candidates in the Mobile County District 2 race in 2021. She only amassed 3.4% of the vote. Tex Copeland, the city’s first political candidate identified as non-binary — a term used for some whose gender identify doesn’t fall into categories of male or female — finished third out of three candidates in the District 5 race. Copeland only received 8.9% of the overall voters. And despite an urging by the city’s LGBTQ community, Mobile has never considered the adoption of a non-discrimination ordinance similar to those in place in Birmingham and Montevallo.

Related content:

Why LGBTQ policies are animating a Mobile annexation campaign