Mo Brooks: Don’t believe the hype. Trade deal with Britain is no big win.

This is an opinion column

America’s #1 long-term economic threat is its $36+ trillion debt and $2 trillion per year deficits. The debt service cost has reached $1 trillion per year.

That’s 20% of all federal tax revenue.

With each passing day that a “Washington in denial” refuses to deal with its debt addiction, the question becomes not “if” but “when” America suffers a debilitating national insolvency and bankruptcy that will arguably usher in the worst era in American history.

America’s #1 short-term economic threat is President Trump’s global trade war brought on by America’s $1 trillion per year trade deficits.

These two economic threats are related because a lost global trade war has the potential to trigger an American national insolvency and bankruptcy.

Global Trade War Status

Trump’s trade war weapon of choice is huge tariff increases that target, tax and hurt struggling American families. The Tax Foundation calculates Trump’s tariff tax increases cost average American household an additional $1,200+/year, money many low- and middle-income families simply do not have.

Trump initiated his global trade war on February 1 when he hit Canada and Mexico with 25% tariffs and China with a 10% tariff. Since then, Trump’s tariffs have been all over the map (up and down, countries in and out, covered products varying daily).

Consistency is not a President Trump strength.

After three months of trade war, the public verdict on Trump’s global trade war is increasingly negative and, consequently, Trump’s public support has dropped 11+ points, unemployment rates have deteriorated (from 4% to 4.2%) and inflation is still not under control.

Absent change, Trump’s global trade war risks empty shelves, higher inflation, more job layoffs, higher interest rates, higher debt borrowing costs, a lower dollar value, and the like.

America needs substantive wins in Trump’s global trade war to achieve long-term gains that offset America’s short-term losses.

The much-hyped America/Britain tentative trade agreement does not meet that goal.

America/Britain Trade “Agreement” Misses the Mark

The America/Britain tentative trade agreement (“tentative” because it is unsigned and still being negotiated) seeks to significantly reduce American tariffs on British-made cars (for those wealthy enough to buy a Rolls Royce) and on steel and aluminum, thereby increasing exports of these products to America while lowering British barriers on American exports of agriculture and ranch products to Britain.

The America/Britain tentative trade agreement is inconsequential in Trump’s overall global trade war. It not only misses the mark; it shoots at the wrong target because Britain is not the problem and is not a contributor to America’s trade deficits. To the contrary, the “U.S. goods trade surplus with the United Kingdom was $11.9 billion in 2024, a 17.4 percent increase ($1.8 billion) over 2023.”

Hence, notwithstanding White House self-congratulating political spin and hype to the contrary, in no way, shape, or form can British trade be blamed for America’s trillion-dollar trade deficit simply because British trade reduces America’s trade deficit.

America’s worst trade deficits are:

  • $422 billion – China
  • $135 billion – Mexico
  • $124 billion – Vietnam
  • $92 billion – Canada
  • $78 billion – Germany
  • $74 billion – Japan
  • $67 billion – Ireland
  • $49 billion – South Korea
  • $47 billion – India
  • $44 billion – Italy & India (each)

This “Top Ten” worst trade offenders list is America’s primary target. If Trump negotiates favorable trade agreements with them, then that is victory for America.

As you read this, rumors swirl of yet another “tentative” but favorable, trade agreement negotiation with Communist China. America should hope these rumors are true and that the trade agreement will substantially reduce America’s $422 billion/year trade deficit with China.

Maybe. Maybe not. Time will tell.

But one thing is certain. Once Trump started his global trade wars, they must be won. Any full or partial “face-saving” surrenders are guaranteed long-term economic losses for America that must be avoided.

Trump Hype and Motivation

The insignificance of the America/Britain trade agreement does not stop President Trump from doing what he does best: tooting his own horn and depicting the trade deal as something it is not.

Trump says it is “a historic trade deal, providing American companies unprecedented access to the UK markets while bolstering U.S. national security. This is a great deal for America.”

The America/Britain trade agreement simply is not “a great deal for America.” Benign? Probably. Great or horrible? Neither. Insignificant compared to the much larger global trade war? Most definitely.

Yet Trump deserves credit for attacking America’s trade deficits head on. Past presidents avoided the issue. That’s why America’s foreign trade deficits are so dangerous. Trump attacks them head on. Kudos!

But setting a goal and achieving that goal are two different things.

Trump must have a candid, honest discussion with the American people. Trump must infuse America with the desire to persevere in what may be a long, drawn-out fight through gains and losses, ups and downs.

Unfortunately, Trump’s false marketing of the America/Britain trade agreement as a major victory undermines his credibility at a time when America sorely needs a leader who leads, not misleads.

Who’s Winning the Global Trade War?

Too many American voters long ago lost patience as a virtue, replacing patience with a demand for instant gratification. That’s not good. Sometimes progress simply takes time to obtain.

While Trump lost the first three months of his global trade war, it could take years to know whether the fight was worth it and whether America won or lost.

America must be patient and wait for the economic data to trickle in. If America’s annual trade deficits significantly decline or are eliminated, then America won and Trump’s fight was well worth it.

If America’s trade deficits do not significantly decline, then Trump badly erred and should never have unilaterally declared a trade war on our international rivals, much less our allies.

Mo Brooks served on the House Armed Services Committee for 12 years and the Foreign Affairs Committee for 6 years. Brooks graduated from Duke University in 3 years with a double major in political science and economics (highest honors in economics).