Johni Broome, the front-runner for National Player of the Year and the leader of the No. 1 overall seed, is coming off a dominant performance against a team from Michigan.

One more game like that against another team from The Great Lakes State and the Auburn Tigers will likely be headed to their second-ever Final Four.

Broome scored 22 points and pulled down 16 rebounds (including nine offensive rebounds) in a dominant 78-65 win over 5th-seeded Michigan on Friday night.

The Tigers needed Broome’s big game, and help from freshman Tahaad Pettiford (20 points), with Miles Kelly (5 points, 1-for-7 from 3) and Chad Baker-Mazara (6 points) struggling.

If the Tigers win they’ll reach the Final Four for the second time in program history. Auburn’s first appearance came in 2019, which coincidentally is the last time Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans reached the Final Four.

Michigan State used a big second-half to get past No. 6 seed Ole Miss on Friday night. The Spartans are 5.5-point underdogs, with the over-under hovering around 149 at the best March Madness betting sites.

Let’s get into my Michigan State vs. Auburn predictions and best bets for this intriguing Elite Eight matchup.

Michigan State vs. Auburn predictions and best bets for the Elite Eight

• Auburn moneyline: -210 at FanDuel
• Auburn -2.5 first half: -125 at DraftKings
• Miles Kelly 4+ 3 pointers: +260 at bet365

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find while writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

Let’s face it, Michigan State feels like a team that has maxed out on its potential. The Spartans weren’t ranked in the AP preseason Top 25, which means they’re going up against some long odds.

According to Ken Pomeroy, there are now 38 teams in the 64-team era that entered the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 or No. 2 seed after not being ranked inside the preseason AP Top 25 – none have reached the Final Four.

Michigan State would be the first (St. John’s was the other team that met this criteria and they’ve already been eliminated). If Michigan State does become the first preseason unranked 1 or 2 seed to reach the Final Four, it will be a much bigger upset than the seed lines and power ratings indicate.

The Spartans are the 7th-best team in the nation, according to Pomeroy’s rankings, but Auburn (4th) is on another level. For instance, Michigan State struggled with Ole Miss, which lost all three games to Auburn by an average of 15 points (one loss was by 30 points!), so it’s hard to see them pulling off the upset here.

The Tigers are the best team I’ve seen this year (Florida is a close second) for a multitude of reasons – starting with Johni Broome. Broome is not only a load in the post, but you can make a case he’s Auburn’s best passer. The Spartans have a collection of bigs that’ll try to contain Broome, but I’m hardly sold on that happening.

The scary part about how easily Auburn handled Michigan was Broome, freshman Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones accounted for 62 of the Tigers’ 78 points. That is an aberration if you’ve seen the Tigers play – they are one of the deepest, most balanced teams in the nation. Don’t overthink this – take the Auburn moneyline.

My second best bet of Auburn -2.5 in the first half is correlated to the Auburn moneyline pick, and can also serve as an alternative if you don’t want to lay the juice there.

Auburn has been one of the best first-half scoring teams all season (39.2 ppg, 16th), per Teamrankings.com. It stands to reason they’ll shoot better for the game than 39% (Friday vs. Michigan), and I think that shooting correction takes place in the first half.

One reason for that is Auburn’s second-best shooter – Miles Kelly (38.6% from 3) – is bound to break out. Kelly made 9 3s on March 1 vs. Kentucky, but is shooting just 30.7% (16-for-52) from 3 since then after going 1-for-7 vs. Michigan on Friday night.

I like Kelly to make at least three 3’s on Sunday and 4+ is tremendous value. It’s worth putting a quarter unit of your bankroll on that bet. Kelly is one of the streakiest shooters – when he gets hot, he’s usually going for 4+ 3s.

I know that Michigan State has the second-best 3-point defense in the nation (28.0%). Still, the Spartans haven’t played a team like Auburn that has a big man who can pass out of double teams to open shooters the way Broome can.

Kelly will benefit from that en route to a strong rebound performance, as will Chad Baker-Mazara, which is why I like the Auburn moneyline as my favorite play on Sunday.

Michigan State vs. Auburn moneyline odds analysis

Why Auburn can win as the favorite

Best odds: -210 at FanDuel

The biggest reason to believe the Tigers can win this game is they’re just better – and deeper – than the Spartans. Auburn has the advantage at practically every position.

The Spartans are slightly better defensively, but struggle to score and shoot the three, two things Auburn does significantly better.

Oh, and the Tigers have the National Player of the Year (in this writer’s opinion). Making matters worse, they didn’t play close to their talent level on Friday. No one will be surprised if the Tigers win this game by 10+ points.

If Miles Kelly and Chad Baker-Mazara, as well as Denver Jones play to their capabilities, the Tigers will win. We know what Broome will do – it’s a matter of the rest of the Tigers contributing.

Why Michigan State can win as the underdog

Best odds: +200 at DraftKings

Two words. Tom Izzo. Izzo is still one of the best coaches this time of year, and if I’m being honest, I believe this moneyline price would be much higher if someone else was coaching the Spartans.

The Spartans’ offense has been spotty at best all season (32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency per Bart Torvik’s metrics). They shoot just 31.1% from 3 (318th), which means they’ll need to limit Auburn’s outside shooting if they have any chance of keeping it competitive. They’ll also need Jase Richardson to build off his 20-point performance on Friday night.

The Spartans must also continue their season-long trend of outstanding defensive rebounding (24.6 drpg, 8th per Bart Torvik’s data) because the Tigers crash the glass like few teams left in the tourney (34.6 off rebs per game, 42nd).