McElroy: Why is Oregon ahead of Texas, Alabama in CFP?
The College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings left Greg McElroy confused, not as to who should be ranked at the top, but as to what criteria the CFP committee was using to determine the best one-loss team.
Why is it, McElroy wondered during Tuesday night’s ESPN rankings reveal show, that No. 6 Oregon is the top-ranked one-loss team, ahead of No. 7 Texas and No. 8 Alabama? The Longhorns and Crimson Tide have far better resumes than the Ducks, McElroy argued.
“We are not paying attention to the resume as it relates to Oregon,” said McElroy, the former Alabama quarterback and ESPN College Football analyst. “They have one win against a team with a winning record at the moment, that being Utah. Their next-best win is 4-5 Colorado. The next-best win after that is 4-5 Washington State.
“Whereas Texas has beaten five teams with a winning record, including a win on the road in Tuscaloosa. And Alabama has beaten four. So if we’re really going to value the eye test, I think it should absolutely be a factor.”
Alabama and Texas — who played each other in Week 2, with the Longhorns winning 34-24 — are in effect getting penalized for playing a tougher non-conference schedule than Oregon, McElroy said. The Ducks’ best non-conference win is 38-30 over Texas Tech, a middle of the pack Big 12 team.
“What you’re telling people to an extent is, ‘hey, you know what, just schedule Texas Tech in the (pre-conference schedule)’ because Texas Tech — that’s who Oregon played,” McElroy said. “Oregon went on the road and looked ugly in the game, by the way, got a late touchdown that made it look a little better. But if you look at the strength of record, it’s not comparable.
“Alabama and Texas are both operating right now pretty well. I wouldn’t say that they’re passing the eye test with flying colors, but they don’t have the luxury of playing Cal. And I’m not trying to take shots at Cal. I’m not trying to take shots at Colorado and these other teams.”
Fellow panelist Joey Galloway argued that Oregon was rated higher than Texas or Alabama because of the “eye test,” that is, committee members appeared to think the Ducks were more impressive on the field. However, McElroy argued that eye test vs. resume was a different discussion regarding the five undefeated Power 5 teams — No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Michigan, No. 4 Florida State and No. 5 Washington — and the one-loss teams.
“That’s why this committee is irritating,” McElroy said. “I don’t know why are we using resume to define Ohio State as No. 1. We’re using it to define Georgia and Michigan as 2 and 3. We’re using resume plus eye test to define Florida State at 4 and Washington at 5.
“… I want to remove the undefeateds for a moment because they’ve earned their right. One through five, in whatever order they’re in, because they went out and they handled their business, they’re in good shape. But the conversation at the moment right now as we take a snapshot of the college football landscape, the conversation between 6, 7 and 8 needs to be a real one because Oregon is getting propped up by a big win against a very average Utah team.”
Panelist Booger McFarland then asked McElroy in which order he’d put the three top one-loss teams.
“For the top one-loss team, it should be Texas,” McElroy said. “They have the best resume. They have five wins against ranked teams that are above .500, including a win on the road in Tuscaloosa that stands above all else. … I would put Alabama behind them because they challenged themselves on the road and have wins against LSU, which is not great, but they got a win against No. 9 Ole Miss, and they also have some other pretty good wins along the way as well.
“So I would put Alabama at 7, then I put Oregon at 8 until proven otherwise. They’ll have their chance when they get the Pac-12 championship.”