After a fun start to the NCAA Tournament, the second day of First Round action tips off today, and among the slate of games include the championship-favorite Duke Blue Devils as they take on the No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers.

The game is set to begin at 2:50 PM EST and will air on CBS. Whoever comes out on top will advance to the Second Round and face the Mississippi State-Baylor winner on Sunday.

Oddsmakers favor Duke as the Blue Devils are 31.5 to 32.5-point favorites, depending on the platform. The over/under for the game is 140.5 across all of Alabama’s top sportsbooks.

Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke predictions and best bets

• Duke -31.5: -115 at DraftKings
• Second Half – Duke -13.5: -104 at FanDuel
• Dallas Hobbs Over 9.5 Points: -120 at FanDuel

The Mountaineers put on quite the show in their play-in victory over American, but they have an offensive efficiency ranking of 279 this season. They should struggle to create points against a Duke team that is fourth defensively. That leads me to believe this game could get out of hand.

No team is better at closing out games than the Blue Devils. The team’s +10.3 average second-half margin is first in the country, with the second-best Florida Gators averaging +8.4. Conversely, Mount St. Mary’s +0.7 average margin is 137th in the country. Look for Duke to keep their foot on the gas enough to cover in the second half.

While the Mountaineers leading scorer this season is Dola Adebayo, I expect him to struggle against Cooper Flagg. That will lead to Hobbs getting more opportunities to create and score. With him shooting six or more threes in his last five games, I think he can work his way to 10 before the buzzer sounds.

Mount St. Mary’s vs. Duke moneyline analysis

Why Duke could win as the favorite

Best odds: -15000 at Caesars

When the moneyline is five digits, the odds of things going awry are pretty slim. The Duke Blue Devils are one of the hottest teams in college basketball, having won 31 games, including the ACC conference championship. It’s worth mentioning that the team accomplished its conference title without Flagg in its final two games.

Now, the All-American Freshman is back and ready to help the Blue Devils cut down the nets in San Antonio, and the first step is today against the No. 16 seed Mount Saint Mary’s in Raleigh, North Carolina.

Few teams are more balanced than the Blue Devils, as the team ranks inside the top five of KenPom’s rankings for offensive and defensive efficiency. On top of that, they’ve handled business all season with no losses coming outside of Quadrant 1.

Aside from Flagg, the Blue Devils have a very strong rotation with nine players who average 10 or more minutes per game. With Flagg facilitating the offense, guards Tyrese Proctor and Kon Knueppel are very effective at finding three-point opportunities. Each player averages over five shots from deep a game and shoots over 38% from downtown.

Many may be nervous about the chance of an upset, but even when looking at historical trends of past major upsets, Duke appears safe. Past No. 1 seeds like the 2018 Virginia Cavaliers and 2023 Purdue Boilermakers had a combined offensive and defensive efficiency ranking from KenPom of 31 or higher– Duke’s is seven.

Why Mount St. Mary’s could win as the underdog

Best odds: +7000 at FanDuel

Following an 83-62 victory over American, the Mountaineers have made it into the First Round and now have to take on the odds on favorite to win the whole thing. Still, entering the game with a tournament victory already under their belt can be a great way to shake the early nerves.

Mount St. Mary’s put together a 23-12 regular season campaign that was good enough for fourth in the MAAC. However, the team took their play to another level to close the year and won the conference championship 63-49 over Iona.

The Mountaineers have won their last six games, with four different players leading the team in scoring in those games. That type of dependability in their lineup will be huge when facing a Duke team that ranks fourth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency ratings.

The forward duo of Dola Adebayo and Jedy Cordilia will need to bring their A-game if the team hopes to compete—the two combine for just under 24 points and over 14 rebounds per game. Going against a battered Cooper Flagg, if they can find ways to produce, it could snowball into history being made today.

A victory for Mount St. Mary’s would be the biggest upset in tournament history based on betting odds, unseating the 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson Knights, who knocked off a No. 1 seeded Purdue Boilermakers as a 16 seed.