March Madness is filled with upsets as top seeds fall to Cinderellas, and the chaos of the opening rounds is impossible to predict. However, the seed numbers don’t always indicate which team is the betting favorite ahead of tipoff.

Ahead of the First Round, there are two lower-seeded teams that oddsmakers at the best March Madness betting sites believe are the favorite before game time.

Let’s take a look at the two underdogs the books are backing in their First Round matchup before the pandemonium begins.

No. 12 Colorado State (-1.5) vs Memphis

• Friday, March 21st at 2:00 PM EST (TBS)
• Best Colorado State ML odds: -125 at Caesars
• Best Memphis ML odds: +105 at BetMGM

Colorado State enters the NCAA Tournament as the winner of its last 10 games, including the Mountain West Conference Championship over Boise State.

Oddsmakers favor Colorado State over No. 5 seed Memphis, as the Rams are 1.5-point favorites across all major platforms. The latest March Madness odds show this over/under is listed between 146.5 to 147.5 points.

The Rams are under-seeded based on advanced stats, as KenPom even ranks them ahead of Memphis in Net Rating and adjusted offensive efficiency. Additionally, Colorado State is way more reliable from the free-throw line, a pivotal aspect of closing out close games during the tournament.

This Friday’s matchup likely comes down to which team controls the tempo. Memphis plays fast, ranking 28th in adjusted tempo, while the Rams play much slower, ranking 251.

Nique Clifford is the star of the Colorado State team, as the senior averages 19 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 4.4 assists per game. His 24 points led all scorers in the team’s victory over Boise State, and he’ll look to carry that momentum onto the big stage.

A very talented Memphis squad is looking to play spoiler to the Rams’ March Madness dreams. The Tigers are 29-5 on the season, including 6-1 against Quad 1 opponents. They also won the American Athletic Conference Championship after beating UAB 84-72.

The team is led by PJ Haggerty, who averages just under 22 points per game, but three other players on the roster also average double-digits.

The 5-12 matchup often brings chaos to the tournament. Just last year, two No. 12 seeds were able to knock off their opponents and shake up brackets across the country. This season, oddsmakers are calling their shot on the Rams to be one of the Cinderellas. But it won’t come easy against a talented and tested Memphis program.

No. 11 North Carolina (-1.5) vs. No. 6 Ole Miss

• Friday, March 21st at 4:05 PM EST (TNT)
• Best UNC ML Odds: -120 at FanDuel
• Best Ole Miss ML Odds: +110 at DraftKings

North Carolina was the final at-large bid and was met with immense public criticism as unworthy. After Tuesday’s 95-68 thrashing of San Diego State, the team has gone from disrespected to favored.

Oddsmakers like North Carolina over No. 6 seed Ole Miss, as the Tar Heels are 1.5 to 2-point favorites across all the top sportsbooks. The over/under for the game can be found between 155.5 to 156 points.

The Tar Heels have the advantage on offense, as the team shoots better from three-point range and the field as a whole. The team also has R.J. Davis to rely on, a fifth-year guard who averages over 17 points a game this season. In the team’s play-in victory over San Diego State, he erupted for 26 points while making all six of his attempts from deep.

A large reason for North Carolina’s bubble status leading up to the bracket reveal was the team’s 1-12 record against Quad 1 opponents this season. However, the team is 22-3 this season when they are the favorite, per TeamRankings. Ole Miss is 5-9 as the underdog.

North Carolina must knock off an impressive Ole Miss team to advance to the Second Round. The Rebels are one of 14 teams to make the tournament from the SEC and rank in the top 31 teams for KenPom’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. While the Tar Heels rank 19th in offense, they’re down at 52nd for defense.

In 12 of the past 13 tournaments, a team from the First Four has advanced to the Second Round. While that could be one of Xavier, Alabama State, or Mt. Saint Mary’s, it seems oddsmakers are expecting North Carolina to be the team that continues the trend.