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Florida State is a slim favorite to beat Louisville in the ACC Championship due to Jordan Travis’ season-ending injury, and victory on Saturday night would likely earn the Seminoles a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Louisville vs. Florida State ACC Championship odds preview

In FSU’s first full game without Travis, backup Tate Rodemaker had an uninspiring performance, completing 48% of his passes for 134 yards. Luckily for the Noles, Trey Benson picked up the slack in the 24-15 victory over Florida, rushing for 95 yards and three touchdowns.

The Gators were also without their own starting quarterback Graham Mertz, and the Florida State defense held replacement Max Brown to 86 yards and an interception. The Seminoles were ranked fourth in the latest CFP rankings, meaning a victory would set up FSU to make the final four on selection Sunday.

Louisville’s outside chance of making the CFP was squandered last week in a 38-31 defeat to Kentucky. The Cardinals dominated the Wildcats in offensive yardage and time of possession, but penalties and three Louisville turnovers were the difference.

Louisville can still find joy in ending Florida State’s College Football Playoff dreams, and the 2023 Cardinals can go down in history as the first Louisville team to win an ACC Championship.

Louisville vs. Florida State best bets and odds: Under 47.5 (-110 or better)

Without Travis, this matchup doesn’t have the makings of a high-scoring affair. Benson bailed out Rodemaker vs. Florida but that game plan won’t be nearly as effective against Louisville.

The Cardinals rank 12th in FBS against the rush, surrendering only 96 yards per game. Rodemaker must force Louisville to respect him as a passer to open things up for the rushing attack, and he didn’t prove capable of doing so last week in his first career start.

When a player of Travis’ caliber goes down, other players typically take it upon themselves to put forth extra effort to cover the loss. FSU’s defense must take that approach to limit Louisville’s scoring, which would erase the need for Rodemaker to air it out and mount a comeback.

Jack Plummer is having a strong year for Louisville, though turnovers have been an issue. Plummer has 11 interceptions and coughed up a pick and fumble in the loss to Kentucky.

Florida State’s 38 sacks are the fourth-most in P5, and the pass rushers need to bring their A-game to give the Seminoles a shot at winning. Anticipate points to be heard-earned on Saturday night.

Louisville vs. Florida State best bets and odds: Jawhar Jordan over 70.5 rushing yards (-115 or better)

The Cardinals’ best shot at victory is exploiting the Noles’ porous run defense. Florida State is stout against the pass but allows 140 rushing yards per game.

Expect heavy doses of the ACC’s second-leading rusher, Jawhar Jordan, and Isaac Guerendo. The Gators gashed the Seminoles defense for 146 yards and a touchdown in Rivalry Week, and head coach Jeff Brohm will surely follow suit in the ACC Championship.

Louisville vs. Florida State ACC Championship odds: How to claim a Kentucky sports betting bonus code, best promotions

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