Alabama is not a swing state, nor anywhere close to being one and Republican Donald Trump is expected to win big among the state’s voters in next week’s election over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

But all eyes will be on Alabama’s 2nd congressional district contest between Democrat Shomari Figures and Republican Caroleene Dobson. The seat has been held by a Republican since 2010, but it was redrawn last year after federal court involvement that gives Black voters a competitive chance to elect a candidate of their choosing.

Here are some things to consider when predicting the winner of the congressional race that includes a district with 13 counties in South Alabama stretching from Mobile to Montgomery.

“Likely Democratic”

National pundits have long labeled the race as “likely Democrat.”

What does that mean?

While not a slam dunk, a “likely” rating means that Figures is in the driver’s seat.

So if Dobson wins, it will portend a bad night for Democrats, said Kyle Kondik, manager editor with Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Viriginia Cener for Politics, which has also long labeled the 2nd district as “likely” Democratic.

“Certainly, if Democrats lost AL-2, it would be part of an overall bad election night for them – I’d have to imagine Republicans would be doing well overall if that happened,” he said. “As it stands now, the House (like the presidential race) appears very close and competitive.”

Cook Political Report also has the race as likely Democratic.

Of the 539 “likely” Democratic races rated by Cook Political Report since 1984, only 22 have missed the mark – a 97% success rate. The Washington, D.C.-based firm has a 96.2% success rate in U.S. House races that are labeled as “likely” Democratic.

“It’s pretty rare,” said Erin Covey, the House editor with Cook Political Report, on whether a “likely” rating is upended on Election Day.

“We define races as ‘likely’ that are not considered competitive, but with the potential to be engaged,” Covey said. “The closer we get to Election Day; we know at this point where their races have been engaged. Are the parties spending a lot of money? Is there outside money going into the district.”

Regarding Alabama’s 2nd district? “We haven’t seen that.”

The national GOP did add Dobson to its “Young Gun” list of 26 Republicans in July, while Figures has been part of the Democratic Congressional Committee’s “Red to Blue” program since May.

Figures, though, has far outpaced Dobson in fundraising in recent months and his candidacy has attracted some national Democratic figures in recent days. U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a New York Democrat, will campaign with Figures Thursday.

“Alabama’s Second should vote Democratic unless there really is a major turnout collapse and/or improvement by Republicans among Black voters,” Kondik said.

“We have kept it as ‘Likely Democratic,’ instead of ‘Safe,’ just to account for this possibility,” Kondik aid. “It’s rare for a party to lose a ‘likely’ rated state or district, although it does happen from time to time.”

Other sites are giving Figures large odds for a win. The probability for a Figures win is 81% to 16% for Dobson, according to website Split Ticket, which conducts electoral analysis for the federal contests.

The website notes that Biden won the 2nd district by 12.5 points. It predicts 2nd district voters backing Harris by 6.7 points.

“It’s one in which Democrats remain clearly favored, with a sizable polling lead and an obvious partisanship advantage,” said Laksyha Jain, CEO of Split Ticket. “The only way in which they would lose this seat is if Black turnout is abysmal and if Black voters also swing to the right by a non-trivial margin. The combination happening is a possibility, of course, but I would not bank on that in a presidential year where voters generally tend to turn out, even though I think it’ll be closer than Biden’s 12.5-point margin (we have Dems winning it by closer to 7).”

Reactions

Figures, while campaigning in Montgomery on Sunday, noted that Democrats often outperform Republicans in the newly drawn district. But there have been the few occasions when that hasn’t happened, including in 2022 when Republican Gov. Kay Ivey received more votes within the 2nd district as she rolled to an easy re-election win.

“We need to keep our eyes on the prize,” said U.S. Rep. Terri Sewell, D-Birmingham, the only current Democratic member of the Alabama congressional delegation. “This is our seat. I’m going to be repeating that. This is a Democratic seat, and a Black Democratic seat. We have to go out and win that seat and we’ve earned the right to have (Figures) in Congress. We have to vote.”

Overall statewide turnout in the 2022 midterms, which featured no real competitive statewide contests, was 38 percent. The 2020 presidential race saw a statewide turnout over 62 percent.

Drew Dickson, a spokesperson with the Dobson campaign, said the Democrats have tried “every effort” to tilt the contest in their favor. He said that Dobson has run a “tireless” campaign that should show results on Election Day.

“Despite every effort by the Democrats to tilt the balance toward their side, Caroleene has built a deep and effective grassroots network, she has shown impressive fundraising prowess for a first-time candidate, and she has spoken to every voter and shaken every hand she can find in cities, towns, and crossroads throughout the district,” Dickson said.

He added, “We are confident that her tireless efforts and the efforts of her committed volunteers and supports throughout the district will result in a win for Caroleene on November 5.”

Biden factor

Covey said that had Biden remained on the ticket, it could have depressed turnout among Democratic voters. With Harris, turnout should be bolstered to typical presidential election levels.

“There was some concern that, pre-Harris, the Black turnout would be low, and that Republicans could hold onto it” Covey said. “It’s light blue enough for Republicans to have a shot to win the seat. But I think the way things are moving now; I’d be surprised if Republicans hold onto the seat. I don’t think we’ve seen either party point to the seat as a full battleground, where the major House Super PACs are spending money here.”

She added, “The House Majority PAC and the Congressional Leadership Fund, if they are spending money on the race, it’s generally because they view it as competitive. If they are not spending money on the races, it’s generally a race we have on the ‘likely’ column.”

House majority

The real drama of the night is whether the House will flip from Republican control to Democratic.

Allan Keiter, president of 270toWin, said that in addition to Alabama’s 2nd district, the 6th congressional district in Northwest Louisiana is also expected to flip to the Democrats. On the flipside, three House seats in North Carolina are expected to flip from Democrat to Republican.

“In all these cases, a redistricting of the map for 2024 has led to the situation,” Keiter said.

The analysts say that anything can happen, and there are no guarantees on which party will emerge from Election Night in control of the House.

Cook has 25 seats labeled as a “Toss Up,” where neither party is the favorite to win.

Republicans hold a four-seat majority.

“Republicans have the slightest advantage,” she said. “But it’s incredibly narrow. There are a couple of seats on both sides I’d expect to flip to the other party. It’s tough to judge. Democrats have the higher ceiling with more Republican seats in a toss-up. But the toss ups are evenly divided, and republicans are favored in more seats than Democrats if you look at the ratings as a whole.”

Nathan Gonzales, a non-partisan analyst with Inside Elections, said the likely Democratic flip of the 2nd district represents an opportunity — whether created by redistricting or not – to get one step closer to a House majority.

“The fight for the House is about as close as the presidential race, which means, it’s very close,” he said. “Alabama isn’t a swing state, but the 2nd district is an important piece of path to a majority for Democrats.”

Exactly how close is the battle for the House majority?

It could come down to one seat – which if won by Figures would be the result of a shocking U.S. Supreme Court ruling last summer that Alabama’s Republican Legislature violated the Voting Rights Act of 1965 when drawing the state’s congressional map.

“That’s why the Alabama map mattered so much,” Covey said. “The parties knew it could come down to this right now. Whoever controls the House in 2025 will have another narrow majority.”