A record-setting 14 SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament, and we were bound to see two of the schools go head-to-head. It took until the Sweet 16, but it’s finally happening with No. 3 seed Kentucky vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The Wildcats haven’t been to the Elite Eight since 2019, and first-year head coach Mark Pope is already a win away from ending the streak. Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes has a shot at getting his team in back-to-back Elite Eights for the first time in program history.

These teams faced off twice in the regular season, providing plenty of data to reflect on ahead of a third meeting in the NCAA Tournament.

The latest March Madness odds list Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite, and the over/under is 144.5. Let’s get into my Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions and best bets.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee predictions and best bets

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

This isn’t the first time Kentucky has been an underdog against Tennessee. In late January, the Wildcats went to Knoxville and earned an outright win as 10.5-point ‘dogs. The teams met again two weeks later at Rupp Arena and Kentucky notched another victory despite catching 3.5 points on the spread.

The Volunteers are outstanding on defense, ranking third in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric. However, the Wildcats managed 75 points or more in both regular season meetings and held the Vols to just 64 points in the second game.

Pope’s squad ranks 25th nationally in 3-point percentage (37.4). They were lights out against Tennessee in the regular season, hitting at a 50% clip from beyond the arc. The Volunteers have one of the best 3-point defenses in the nation, but the struggles with Kentucky are glaring. I’ll take the Wildcats to cover the spread, and the +170 moneyline odds are also worth considering with a smaller wager.

Slowing down Zakai Zeigler will be key for Kentucky. Zeigler averages 13.7 points and 7.4 assists per game, but he won’t get as much room to operate against lockdown defender Lamont Butler. Butler joined the Wildcats after winning Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year last season, and he has a notable size advantage over Zeigler.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee moneyline odds analysis

Why Tennessee could win as the favorite

Best odds: -190 at Fanatics Sportsbook

Tennessee’s defense has been dominant through the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. No. 15 seed Wofford was held to 62 points in the first round, and No. 7 seed UCLA failed to break 60 points. The Volunteers must forget the regular season losses against the Wildcats and keep the positive momentum rolling.

Tennessee has been a solid 3-point shooting team, but nothing was falling in the previous matchups with Kentucky. The Volunteers combined to shoot an abysmal 20.55% from beyond the arc. If Zeigler and leading-scorer Chaz Lanier drain more shots from long-range, Tennessee will stand a much better chance in the third meeting.

Attacking the offensive glass is a strength for the Vols. The Wildcats surrender the second-most points per game in the SEC, and Tennessee bigs Igor Milicic Jr. and Felix Okpara can find easy put-back buckets if Kentucky’s defense is caught sleeping.

Why Kentucky could win as the underdog

Best odds: +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Kentucky is one of the few teams Tennessee likely hoped to avoid in March Madness. The Wildcats and Florida are the only squads that defeated the Volunteers twice this season.

Playing vastly different styles is partially why Kentucky is such a difficult matchup for Tennessee. The Wildcats like to push the tempo, ranking 41st in average possession length. Tennessee is much more methodical and sits at 275th in pace.

Six Kentucky players average double-digit scoring, and Otega Oweh leads the way with 16.3 points per game. The ‘Cats rank sixth nationally in average scoring thanks to a very well-balanced attack. Tennessee’s offense is better than years past, but they won’t be able to keep up if Kentucky has another hot night from beyond the arc.