This is an opinion column.

We’d barely exhaled, barely had time to enjoy our high — to embrace the magnitude of the U.S. Supreme Court’s momentous acknowledgment that Alabama is still trying to dilute and diminish Black voters. That the state must redraw its gerrymandered maps and create another largely Black U.S. Congressional district, ensuring a population comprising nearly 30 percent of residents is no longer only represented by 14 percent of the state’s House members.

SCOTUS said Alabama must fix this mess, no matter how much Secretary of State Steve Marshall whines, stomps, and pouts, “This case is not over.” (Unless the U.S. Constitution was edited while we weren’t watching to make you more supreme than the Supreme Court, yes it is.)

So, who’s running? You gonna run?

Those two questions — or some variation — started jamming phone lines and clogging text message threads across the state even before the historic ruling was announced last Thursday morning. Because some got wind of it the night before. And the buzz hasn’t abated a bit.

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I know. It’s way, way, way too early to accurately speculate who’ll run to represent the voters of, oh, let’s call it District 8, as Alabama’s newest member of Congress in Washington.

Who cares?

An election won’t likely be held until the fall of 2024, at the earliest, when Congressional elections are already scheduled.

Who cares?

So much must happen before then. We don’t yet know who’ll draw the new maps — a lower court, state lawmakers, or maybe there’ll be a Shark Tank pitch fest for cartographers.

Who cares?

We don’t know what the two districts will look like — how they’ll dissect and distribute the Blackness of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Montgomery, and the Black Belt.

We don’t know if a candidate will have to move (wink) so they “qualify” to rep D8.

We don’t know if the resulting districts will each be majority Black, or just only heavily so. (Just for purposes of simplicity in this space, “Black” and “Democrat” are interchangeable.) If the latter, then will D8 be vulnerable to a formidable Republican challenge?

Might Rep. Terri Sewell, the sole Black person (and Democrat, in case you still need nudging) among Alabama’s eight-member U.S. House delegation and long the beneficiary of a majority-Black district, be vulnerable? (Answer is below.)

And we’ve heard nary a peep from the governor about it all. (Or maybe we missed it amid all the champagne poppin’.) She’ll have to call a special legislative session of the legislature to discern, debate and ultimately approve the new maps.

Who cares? Who cares? Who cares?!

That’ll all work itself out. In the meantime, I’m channeling my long-ago sportswriter days and going all-in on way, way, way too early predictions on who’ll run.

One caveat: No one (not any Black/Democrat) will challenge Sewell in District 7 — at least no one with any real juice. Call it this: Respect. And that perhaps at least some Black Dems are on one accord even as some Republicans may attempt to sow seeds of discord among them.

So, here we go, in alphabetical order, here are the folks whom I believe have, at minimum, contemplated a run or, at the most, reached out to folks to support their thoughts about running for the D8 seat:

• State Sen. Merika Coleman – A public servant since 2002, Coleman just concluded her first term in the state Senate after five terms in the House. She has roots in Tuscaloosa and is known as a spirited fighter with the finesse to get legislation passed (she’s flying to Washington, D.C. on Tuesday to be feted by the White House for work on behalf of reproductive rights, and she led the effort to remove racist language from our state constitution). And she’s been a fervent supporter of other Democratic candidates. (3-1 she runs)
• State. Rep. Chris England ­– The man took a beating after stepping in to head the state’s dysfunctional Democratic party in 2016 while it was in transition (isn’t it still?). He’s solidly represented Tuscaloosa County and environs since 2006 and has HBCU cred with a Howard degree. (2-1, he gives a run serious, serious consideration)
• Montgomery Mayor Steven Reed – Montgomery’s first-term mayor will be tempted to seek the seat, for myriad reasons — from the family’s political footprint in the state, to, well, why the heck not? Ultimately, though, his work in the state capital is far from done, and departing might hurt those who fought hard to make him the city’s first Black mayor. (2-4, not likely)
• Jefferson County Commissioner Leshunda Scales – She’s got her sights set on becoming Birmingham mayor (She finished a distant, distant second to incumbent Randall Woodfin in 2017— 64% to 20%), though surely the SCOTUS decision piqued her. (Slightly less than even odd, 2-3, she runs)
• State Rep. Bobby Singleton – He’s quietly yet formidably served District 24 (Tuscaloosa) since 2005. He’s the first-time, two-time state senate minority leader, an ascension that may be too much to give up to be one of 435 among, the number of U.S. House members. Not to mention the work required to win a congressional seat, even a new one. (Like Scales, maybe less so, odds are 2-4 he runs)
• Jefferson County Commissioner Sheila Tyson – There may not be a more grass-roots elected official in the state, few with more heartfelt support among constituents who will knock on doors and walk miles for her. (Just above even odds, 4-3, she runs, unless she’s ultimately persuaded by her roots to stay rooted in a powerful county commission seat.)
• Birmingham Mayor Randall Woodfin – Am intriguing thought, and among all of these potential candidates the two-termer has perhaps the most kick-ass campaign machine (the man released a dance video featuring now fiancée Kendra Morris on election night) and a track record of growth, that, while not unassailable, is supported by myriad segments of the region. Moreover, he’s long been on the radar of the Biden administration, and I’ve long heard of the challenge of leaving a “CEO-like” position to be one of 435. That said, my guess is the odds are long (1-10) he runs.

Oh, there are others whose minds have wondered, whose phones have buzzed, those who have clogged text threads. Among them: State Sen. C. Vivian Figures, Rep. Neil Rafferty and Rep. Juandalynn Givan.

It’s still way, way, way too early to accurately speculate, but who cares?

More columns by Roy S. Johnson

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I’m a Pulitzer Prize finalist for commentary and winner of the Edward R. Murrow prize for podcasts: “Unjustifiable,” co-hosted with John Archibald. My column appears in AL.com, as well as the Lede. Stay tuned for my upcoming limited series podcast “Panther: Blueprint for Black Power,” co-hosted with Eunice Elliott. Subscribe to my free weekly newsletter, The Barbershop, here. Reach me at [email protected], follow me at twitter.com/roysj, or on Instagram @roysj