WHAT: South Alabama (4-5, 3-2 Sun Belt) at Louisiana (8-1, 5-0)

WHEN: 6 p.m., Saturday

WHERE: Cajun Field, Lafayette, La.

SERIES: Louisiana leads 9-3

TV: None (ESPN+)

LINE: Louisiana by 7

THIS GAME WILL DETERMINE IF: South Alabama can stay in the hunt for the Sun Belt West championship. Louisiana can clinch the division title and a berth in the Sun Belt championship game with a win.

RELATED: Kicker Laith Marjan has been among South Alabama’s biggest surprises in 2024

THREE THINGS TO LOOK FOR

1. Can South Alabama finally win a close game?

The Jaguars’ four victories this season have been decided by an average of 41.3 points, none by fewer than 16. Not counting a 42-10 blowout at LSU, South Alabama’s four losses to fellow Group of 5 competition have been by an average of 6.75 points per game. That includes an 18-16 loss to Arkansas State and a 34-30 defeat to Georgia Southern, in which the Jaguars blew leads in the fourth quarter. South Alabama still needs two wins for bowl-eligibility, and chances are one of them will have to be close.

2. Will the South Alabama running game continue to excel?

The Jaguars have totaled 300 or more rushing yards three times this season and have run for at least 160 yards in each of their last four games. The Ragin’ Cajuns are extremely difficult to pass on (only 173 yards per game and eight touchdowns total allowed through the air), but can be gotten to on the ground (4.9 yards per carry allowed). Kentrel Bullock and Fluff Bothwell have been carrying the load all season for South Alabama (1,217 yards and 15 touchdowns combined), but the Jaguars will likely need the legs of quarterback Gio Lopez — who is back healthy after leaving the Georgia Southern game with a concussion in the fourth quarter — to win this one. He has just nine carries for 68 yards and one touchdown in his last two games.

3. Can the Jaguars avoid the killer mistakes that lose games?

Yellow flags have been a huge problem for South Alabama all season, as the Jaguars rank last in the Sun Belt and 124th out of 133 FBS teams at 73.7 penalty yards per game. Penalties probably cost the Jaguars a win at Arkansas State, and might have vs. Georgia Southern. South Alabama has turned the ball over just five times this season, though two of those have come on kick returns (including a momentum-shifting fumbled kickoff last time out). The Jaguars have also been victimized by poor run fits and coverage busts on defense at inopportune time. Suffice it to say, they won’t beat a team like Louisiana by committing self-inflicted setbacks.

KEY MATCHUP

Louisiana QB Ben Wooldridge vs. South Alabama secondary

Wooldridge leads the Sun Belt in passing efficiency, and has completed 68% of his passes with just four interceptions this year. The Jaguars’ secondary has been prone to the big play all year, particularly on third down.

BY THE NUMBERS

2-1 — South Alabama’s record this season vs. teams from Louisiana. The Jaguars beat Northwestern State and Louisiana-Monroe, but lost to LSU.