It’s the housing, stupid!
This column first appeared in Kyle Whitmire’s weekly newsletter, Alabamafication. Get it in your inbox every Wednesday by subscribing here.
An old editor said to me once, “Kyle, the thing you have to remember is, the younger generation is always going to hell. When I was young, our parents told us we were going to hell. Now we think your generation is going to hell. And when you are my age, you’ll think your kids’ generation is going to hell, too.”
I’m not worried about hell, yet. But a lot of elected leaders should worry about something in between.
The younger generation is stuck in limbo. It feels like hell. And it’s making them mad.
For the last couple of months, I’ve been toying with a column idea: What if everything’s OK?
Not great. Not bad. But good enough considering where we were just a few years ago.
After all, COVID is manageable. The economy didn’t sink into a second Great Depression. In fact, the economy is so hot that unemployment is at record lows. The soft landing seems to have worked. Inflation has come back down. In recent months, wage growth has overtaken inflation. What’s there to be mad about?
I’m not the only one who’s noticed this. I’ve started collecting links to pieces asking the same question: Why are people bummed out about the economy?
Here’s one from Fortune.
Here’s one from CNN.
Here’s one from Bloomberg.
We’re lightyears from James Carville’s jab, “It’s the economy, stupid.”
The discontent over the economy seems to be coming mostly from the young which, as my wife often reminds me, I’m not anymore, which is usually followed by “you’re thinking like a 50-year-old,” which is usually followed by “I’m 46, and would you please quit rounding up …
But anyway. Lest we settle with the younger generation is going to hell, I’ve kicked this idea around with some of my younger colleagues and friends. Without exception, they’ve gone back to one thing.
“It’s the housing, stupid.”
My wife and I were lucky. We started a family at just the right moment when we were able to buy a home in a good school district at a price we could afford. During the pandemic, we refinanced during unprecedented low interest rates.
Were we to start out today, instead of 10 years ago, I don’t know that we could have done it.
The young people — single people, couples, families — are in that position.
The market is frozen and so are they.
They aren’t in hell. But they’re in limbo.
This week, Atlantic staff writer Annie Lowery captured the problem in one neat paragraph.
“This is the uncomfortable equilibrium the market finds itself in today,” she writes. “Nobody’s selling, because nobody’s buying. Nobody’s buying, because nobody’s selling. Nobody can afford to sell. Nobody can afford to buy. Prices are high; mortgage costs are high. Rents are high, too, and there’s not a huge amount of rental inventory. Everyone’s stuck and paying more than they want to.”
Shelter is foundational in the hierarchy of needs, but our public officials and would-be officials have their attention focused on other things.
Joe Biden is losing support from younger voters because Ukraine and Israel appear to be taking up more time and attention than their needs at home.
Meanwhile, the Republicans are more worried about what’s on library shelves than new home construction.
No one seems to have a plan.
Whoever comes up with one first, might be our next president.
The younger generation isn’t going to hell, but they’re up for grabs.