Is winter over for Alabama? Here’s the March outlook
March 1 marks the official start of meteorological spring, and winter chills could be all but over, if some forecasts hold true.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center has several weather outlooks for the month of March, and every one of them is suggesting the state could experience above-average temperatures (and precipitation) over the next month.
Now, a disclaimer: It’s only a forecast, and it’s updated frequently. And just because it is forecasting the month of March to have above-average temperatures doesn’t mean that will be the case every single day of the month.
However, the overall trend is for warmer and wetter conditions for the state.
Which sometimes can mean storms. March is historically one of Alabama’s busiest months for tornadoes, second only to April:
Alabama can have tornadoes any month of the year, but typically the most active are March and April. National Weather Service
As far as temperatures go, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a 40-50 percent probability that north, east and parts of central Alabama will have above-average temperatures. Parts of west and south Alabama have a 33-40 percent chance of the same (the temperature outlook for March is at the top of this post).
There is more confidence in more rain in the March precipitation outlook. It is forecasting a 50-60 percent probability that Alabama will have above-average precipitation over the month. The exception is north Alabama, which has a 40-50 percent probability:
There is a higher probability of above-average precipitation for Alabama over the month of March.CPC
What is average, anyway? Here are some average high and low temperatures and precipitation for several Alabama cities for the month of March:
* Birmingham: High 67.1, low 45; precipitation 5.66 inches
* Dothan: High 72.9, low 48.8, precipitation 4.72 inches
* Huntsville: High 65.6, low 43, precipitation 5.39 inches
* Mobile: High 71.8, low 50, precipitation 5.44 inches
* Montgomery: High 71.9, low 46.5, precipitation 5.21 inches
* Muscle Shoals: High 65.2, low 43.5, precipitation 5.14 inches
* Troy: High 69.9, low 46.1, precipitation 4.83 inches
* Tuscaloosa: High 68.3, low 45.5, precipitation 4.82 inches
The first part of March looks to be on the warm side, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Its six- to 10-day outlook for temperature shows a 60-70 percent probability of above-average temperatures for the state through March 10:
Warmer-than-average temperatures are more likely for Alabama over the first week of March.CPC
The precipitation outlook for the same timeframe shows a higher probability of above-average rainfall, with eastern Alabama having the higher chances:
Above-average rainfall will be possible for Alabama through March 10.CPC
The first day of meteorological summer will be June 1.