There is now a 60 percent chance that a tropical depression forms near the United States this Independence Day weekend, but those along the Gulf Coast can breathe easier for now.

The National Hurricane Center has shifted where forecasters think the disturbance will form from the Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic, off the Southeast coast.

The hurricane center on Thursday also raised the probability of a tropical depression forming there to 60 percent, an increase from 40 percent on Wednesday.

Forecasters think an area of low pressure will develop along a stalled out frontal boundary near Florida or the southeast Atlantic coast by Saturday.

A tropical or subtropical depression could form in that vicinity over the weekend or early next week.

The system is expected to drift to the north or northeast.

It could spread heavy rain near the Southeast Atlantic coast, and also the the Florida peninsula.

Here is the seven-day precipitation outlook from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, which shows higher amounts are indeed expected in Florida:

The National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Fla., which monitors the weather across southeast Alabama, said on Thursday that chances are low for any impacts from the system in its coverage area.

A system has to have a defined surface circulation and winds of at least 40 mph to be considered a tropical storm and get a name. The next name on the 2025 Atlantic storm list is Chantal.

So far in 2025 there have been two, weak, short-lived tropical storms, one in the central Atlantic that didn’t affect land (Andrea), and the other in the southern Gulf, which moved onshore in eastern Mexico as a tropical depression (Barry).

Still, NOAA forecasters are expecting activity to pick up before the season ends on Nov. 30, and are forecasting a high probability of 13-19 named storms.