Is that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? It could be soon

Is that a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico? It could be soon

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico worked to get its act together overnight, and it could end up getting a name as well.

And on the first official day of the Atlantic hurricane season, no less.

The National Hurricane Center said the disturbance, called Invest 91 for now, became more organized overnight and could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm over the next few days.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters are expected to fly out over the Gulf and take a closer look at the system later today.

A tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now has a 50 percent probability of becoming a tropical depression or storm.

The disturbance is expected to drift around over the northeastern Gulf over the next day or two and then southward over the weekend — but it still could stay offshore during that time.

The hurricane center said atmospheric conditions will become less favorable over the weekend and could limit or end any development.

The hurricane center put the probability of a tropical depression or storm forming at 50 percent (medium), up from 20 percent on Wednesday.

A system has to have a defined center of circulation and winds of at least 39 mph to be considered a tropical storm and get a name.

The first name on the 2023 Atlantic storm list is Arlene.

Arlene or no Arlene, the system could bring higher rain chances and a high risk of rip currents to the Alabama coast, and the Florida Peninsula could see several inches of rain over the weekend as the system moves in that direction.

The National Weather Service in Mobile has raised the rip current risk to high, the highest category, for Alabama and northwest Florida beaches today through tonight.

Today is also the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, which will run until Nov. 30.

NOAA released its hurricane outlook last week and said a near-average season could be in the cards, with 12-17 named storms, five to nine hurricanes and one to four major hurricanes possible.

The hurricane center said the long-term averages for the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes are 14, 7 and 3.