Deciding where to eat your turkey for Thanksgiving comes down to the cost for a lot of people, leaving many to ask, ‘Should we cook at home or eat out this year?’

With the price of turkeys cheaper than they were in 2022, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation, it might be the year to eat at home, especially with experts warning that restaurant menu prices are increasing.

“It’s really hard to say to people, ‘Hey it’s going to be cheaper to eat for Thanksgiving this year as compared to last year,” Michael Swanson, agriculture economist with Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute, told USA TODAY.

“The (cost of) turkey is a nice offset but, in general, food is not cheaper than a year ago.”

In 2022, the price per-pound for turkey rose more than 20% – compared to 2021 – costing $1.72 per pound for an eight to 16-pound bird, according to an annual Thanksgiving report from Wells Fargo, largely due to inflation and a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak that infected 7 million turkeys and wiped out commercial livestock Thanksgiving food.

But this year, the average price of a turkey is down 22% from last year, with an eight to 16-pound bird now going for $1.27 per pound.

While the price of turkey is down, data shows that the overall cost of food is more expensive. Thanksgiving side dishes like cranberry sauce, pie and dinner rolls are expected to be 4% more expensive in 2023 compared to last year.

“While inflation is not as extreme as last year, it is still present and grocery store prices have still been somewhat variable,” Bernt Nelson, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, told USA TODAY.

Economist experts like Swanson report that the cost of food at restaurants has increased at a faster rate (around 6%) than food at home from a grocery store (2.4%). With higher wages that restaurants have taken on to retain employees, menu items have also increased – making eating on Thanksgiving more costly.

Reckon did the math on the price of Thanksgiving dinner if cooked at home or if eaten at three different restaurants with less expensive ($), mid-priced ($$) and more expensive ($$$) menu items.

Cooking Thanksgiving at home

According to data from the Farm Bureau’s annual Thanksgiving cost survey, here is how much, on average, individual Thanksgiving ingredients cost this year. The survey found that the traditional holiday feast for 10, is $61.17 or less than $6.20 per person.

• 16-pound turkey: $27.35 or $1.71 per pound
• 14-ounces of cubed stuffing mix: $3.77
• 2 frozen pie crusts: $3.50
• Half pint of whipping cream: $1.73
• 1 pound of frozen peas: $1.88
• 1 dozen dinner rolls: $3.84
• Misc. ingredients to prepare the meal: $3.95
• 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix: $4.44
• 1 gallon of whole milk: $3.74
• 3 pounds of sweet potatoes: $3.97
• 1-pound veggie tray (carrots & celery): $.90
• 12-ounce bag of fresh cranberries: $2.10
  

Eating Thanksgiving at a $$$ restaurant

Ruth’s Chris Steak House – $47.95 a person

*Gratuity not included

Starters (select one) – Mixed green salad or chicken and andouille sausage gumbo

Entree – Traditional oven-roasted turkey dinner with giblet gravy, mashed potatoes, honey-glazed baby carrots, sausage & herb stuffing and cranberry relish

Dessert (select one) -Pumpkin cheesecake or chocolate bourbon pecan pie

Eating Thanksgiving at a $$ restaurant

Macaroni Grill – $34 a person

*Gratuity not included

Starters (select one) – Rosa’s Signature Caesar Fresh Greens Salad Cup of Soup

Entree – Roasted turkey breast, mashed potatoes with roasted garlic demi-glaze sausage, apple stuffing and cranberry sauce (choice of crispy brussels sprouts or broccolini)

Dessert – Pumpkin cannoli or traditional cannoli pumpkin tiramisu

Eating Thanksgiving at a $ restaurant

IHOP – $15.49 a person

*Gratuity not included

Roasted turkey and gravy over cornbread stuffing and served with a choice of two dinner entree sides and mixed berry topping

*Dessert not included

Reckon’s verdict: In 2023, it would be more expensive to eat out for Thanksgiving depending on where you go, than to cook at home. With turkey prices down this year, having your bird at home is more affordable than 2022 but the overall cost of traditional Thanksgiving foods has slightly increased with inflation. What’s most important is making the best decision for your financial and holiday desires.