Alabama men’s basketball is heading to Nashville with full intentions of trying to win the SEC Tournament.

But is that best for the Crimson Tide and its chase for a national championship?

Maybe. Maybe not.

The past two years have been odd in that regard for Alabama, who begin their SEC Tournament journey on Friday. The Crimson Tide won the SEC Tournament in 2023 then didn’t make it past the Sweet 16 in the NCAA Tournament, falling to San Diego State. Then in 2024, Alabama lost the first game it played in the SEC tournament before reversing course and going on a run, all the way to the Final Four.

Are there actually advantages to not winning the SEC tournament title?

“There may be,” Alabama coach Nate Oats said Wednesday. “We also went one-and-done in Tampa (in 2022) and then went one-and-done in the NCAA Tournament too. We’re going to try to win it. We’ve won more championships in the SEC than everybody else since I’ve been here. This is a championship we’re trying to win. If we don’t end up winning it, there will be some positives we’ll try to sell the guys on. But that’s not the goal. The goal is to go there and win three in a row and win a championship and have ourselves playing on a run going into the NCAA Tournament.”

The advantages of winning the SEC Tournament: You win a championship (get a trophy), and you build momentum toward a March Madness run.

The disadvantages of winning the SEC Tournament: You play at least three games in three straight days, if not four games in four straight days depending on your seeding and have less of a chance to rest/heal up and prepare for the NCAA Tournament.

There are many factors that go into March Madness runs, and the SEC Tournament (and how many games a team plays) is only one of them. But it’s fascinating to see how much or how little success in one correlates to success in the other.

AL.com decided to look at a decade of data, examining the past 10 SEC Tournament champions and runners-up and how both performed in the NCAA tournament afterward.

Most common outcomes

Here’s a summary of how every team listed above has done in March Madness (past 10 SEC tournament title game participants, winner or loser). Note: Texas A&M played in the NIT in 2022.

Takeaways from the SEC tournament data (past 10 tournaments)

• No team has made it past the Sweet 16 since COVID-19 that has played in the SEC Tournament championship, winner or loser.
• Don’t lose the SEC Tournament title game if you want to make a deep March run; Only one runner-up in past decade has made it past the Sweet 16.
• A majority of SEC runners-up haven’t made it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
• No team has won a national championship who’s played in the SEC Tournament championship game over the past decade. But no SEC team has won a national championship otherwise since 2012 (Kentucky).
• Five of the 20 teams have made it past the Sweet 16.

The most compelling reason why to win the SEC Tournament

Despite the potential benefits for some rest heading into the NCAA Tournament, there’s one big reason why it’s worthwhile to play in the conference Tournament championship game.

Of the past five national championships from the SEC, all five have played in the SEC Tournament title game.

Arkansas in 1994 was the last SEC team to win a national championship without playing in the SEC Tournament championship game.

Final thoughts

Correlation might not necessarily equal causation in this circumstance. It’s not worthwhile to try to lose in the SEC Tournament. Go and try to win the whole thing if you can.

The important takeaway is more so this: Don’t be too disappointed if you end up losing before Sunday. Maybe, just maybe, it will turn out for the better.

Nick Kelly is an Alabama beat writer for AL.com and the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on X and Instagram.