We wrote this week about the Hugh Freeze era at Auburn, how it’s stagnant and the need for urgency.

He’s lost more than he’s won through two seasons, so it feels like something needs to change.

In the interest of fairness, we can dig deeper into the context of the situation as Year 3 approaches.

We’ll take a look at other coaches hired in the same cycle, Freeze’s history and how other new hires handled inherited brush fires.

To set the baseline, Freeze is 11-14 in two Auburn seasons. The Tigers were 6-7 in Year 1 ending with a Music City Bowl loss to Maryland before going 5-7 last year.

Five of their seven losses last year came by 10 or fewer points including maddening games with California (21-14), Arkansas (24-14), Oklahoma (27-21), Missouri (21-17) and Vanderbilt (17-7). The loss to the Commodores left Auburn 3-6, but a 43-41 overtime win over then-No. 15 Texas A&M three weeks later offered some consolation in an otherwise disastrous season.

So how does this stack up?

Compared to other late 2022 new hires

There were 11 new hires made among power conference schools after the 2022 season and before the 2023 campaign.

Of course, every situation is different so direct comparisons are difficult.

Mississippi State had the only other one in that cycle as Zack Arnett took over after Mike Leach’s death. That didn’t go well and Arnett was out before the end of the 2023 season with a 4-6 record.

Here are a few who took over for fired coaches.

• Brent Key, Georgia Tech (14-12): Yellow Jackets were 5-7 the previous year and 7-6 in both of Key’s seasons as head coach. They had wins over No. 17 Miami and No. 17 North Carolina in 2023 before taking down No. 4 Miami, preseason No. 10 Florida State before taking No. 7 Georgia to eight OTs in a 44-42 road loss. 
• Kenny Dillingham, Arizona State (14-12): The Sun Devils were 3-9 the year before he arrived and 3-9 in his first season. The breakthrough came when they won the Big 12 with an 11-3 record in Year 2. 
• Deion Sanders, Colorado (13-12): A forgotten program with an 1-11 record in 2022, Sanders elevated the school’s profile. Travis Hunter won a Heisman Trophy last season, but Colorado struggled against quality opponents in a 9-4 season. 
• Luke Fickell, Wisconsin (13-13): It’s been a disappointing start in Madison after seasons of 7-6 and 5-7. The Badgers were 7-6 in 2022 when Paul Chryst was fired midseason. 
• Matt Rhule, Nebraska (12-13): The Huskers had been in the woods for two-plus decades following a 4-8 season left the proud program with six straight losing seasons. They had another in Year 1 at 5-7 but found some momentum last year when a 7-6 season was punctuated by a Pinstripe Bowl win, the program’s first since 2015. 

Along with Arnett, fired coaches from that cycle included Ryan Walters at Purdue (5-19 record) and Troy Taylor at Stanford (6-19 record).

So, it could be worse than Auburn. The Tigers were 5-7 in the season Harsin was fired and Cadillac Williams finished with a hint of momentum.

What’s also true is two coaches from the previous year’s carousel led teams to the CFP national title game one of their first two seasons after replacing fired coaches. That group includes Sonny Dykes at TCU and Kalen DeBoer at Washington.

Three others from the late 2021 group of hires have made it to the playoff, though each took over programs on better footing. That list includes Dan Lanning at Oregon, Rhett Lashlee at SMU and Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame.

And last year, Curt Cignetti took an afterthought Indiana program from a 3-9 record a year earlier to the CFP.

So better is possible.

Other major rebuilds

Freeze is not the first to take over a program in shambles. Others have arguably taken over worse.

CBS Sports recently published a list of the 15 worst coaching hires of the past decade. Harsin and Auburn checked in at No. 10. Let’s examine a few others from the list to see how their replacements fared in the aftermath.

Arkansas, Chad Morris to Sam Pittman (2020 first year)

The Razorbacks went 4-18 in Morris’ two seasons — good (or bad) enough to make the No. 1 spot on CBS Sports’ list. He went 0-14 in SEC play in two miserable seasons.

Pittman, a former offensive line coach, went 3-7 in Year 1 before going 9-4 in Year 2 punctuated by an Outback Bowl win. That included a wins over No. 15 Texas, No. 7 Texas A&M and close losses to No. 17 Mississippi (52-51) and No. 2 Alabama (42-35).

Pittman was 12-11 through two years and is 30-31 after five with three bowl wins.

Tennessee, Jeremy Pruitt to Josh Heupel (2021)

The former Alabama DC went 5-19 in Knoxville and left behind an NCAA investigation that turned into sanctions. It was a true rock bottom as Pruitt ranked No. 5 on the worst hires list.

Heupel, however, turned around a program in generational rot quickly. The Vols were 7-6 his first year after going 3-7 in Pruitt’s last season.

They were 11-2, ranked No. 1 for a few weeks and contending for a national title in his second season. Heupel is 37-15 through four seasons with a CFP appearance last season.

Those were the only other two SEC schools that made the list other than Harsin at Auburn. But both show it’s possible to turn complete messes into competitive if not dominant teams a little quicker in today’s environment.

Freeze’s past turnarounds

And while no situation is the same, he’s had no trouble rebuilding foundations of programs with fewer resources or the tradition of Auburn.

It began with his first FBS job after rising from the high school ranks.

Arkansas State, 2011 (10-3 in only season)

Before Freeze took over, the Red Wolves last winning record came in 1981. They were 4-8 the previous season and 10-3 in the lone season under Freeze. A nine-game winning streak made the offensive-minded coach a hot name when bigger jobs opened at the end of the season.

Mississippi, 2012 (15-11 in first two seasons)

The Houston Nutt era fizzled with a 4-8 record in 2010 followed by a 2-10 mess in 2011. Freeze arrived in 2012 and led the program to a 7-6 record in Year 1 and 8-5 the following season. By Year 3, he beat Nick Saban’s No. 1 Crimson Tide en route to a 9-4 record. A year later, another win over Alabama had Mississippi in position to win the SEC West. It faltered late but finished 10-3 with a Sugar Bowl win.

Liberty, 2019 (18-6 in first two seasons)

After a few seasons out of coaching for off-the-field matters, Freeze took over a Liberty program in its second season as a full FBS member. The Flames went 8-5 in that first season before recording a 10-1 season in 2020. That season included wins over Syracuse and Virginia Tech with a 15-14 loss at NC State as the only blemish on the record.

Freeze had an 83-43 record in 10 seasons as an FBS coach before arriving at Auburn. That’s a 65.8 winning percentage. He’s 11-14 in two seasons with the Tigers for a 44.0 winning percentage.

Will he have another Year 3 breakout like in Oxford?

Freeze is due — make that overdue — for the kind of season he and others in his position have had elsewhere.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.