The Pop-Tarts Bowl is a prime example of the wonderful obscurity fans have come to love about college bowl season. Outside of last season’s College Football Playoff, the Pop-Tarts Bowl was by far the most popular matchup.

After Kansas State won it in 2023, a life-sized Pop-Tarts mascot was lowered into a massive toaster. Then, a giant edible Pop-Tart slid out and the Wildcats celebrated the victory with a sweet treat. Words don’t do it justice, so here’s what you may have missed:

Did I mention this year’s Pop-Tarts Bowl features a high-quality matchup between a pair of 10-win teams that narrowly missed the CFP? Iowa State has never won 11 games in a season. Miami’s last 11-win campaign came in 2003.

As if the Pop-Tarts Bowl couldn’t get any better, key players from both sides are suiting up, including Heisman finalist Cam Ward. How could they pass on an opportunity to hoist a trophy with a built-in toaster? Below are my expert picks for a highly-anticipated matchup between Iowa State and Miami.

Iowa State vs. Miami predictions and best bets

*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

The Cyclones’ defense was strong for most of the season, but an awful performance in the Big 12 Championship instilled little confidence in the unit’s chances against the Hurricanes. Arizona State ran for an eye-popping 248 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-19 victory over Iowa State.

A matchup with the highest-scoring offense in FBS doesn’t bode well for the Cyclones. Miami scores 44 points per game, largely due to a breakout season from Ward. He set program records with 4,123 passing yards and 36 touchdowns. The Washington State transfer is also mobile, rushing for 196 yards and four scores.

Miami RB Damien Martinez should get plenty of opportunities to take advantage of an Iowa State defense that allows 179 rushing yards per game. Martinez led Miami with nine rushing touchdowns. I’m betting on the Hurricanes’ top ball carrier to punch another in the end zone.

Miami’s Achilles’ heel was a porous defense that surrendered 30+ points in five games. The unit was particularly bad in the final game when the Hurricanes needed a win to earn a spot in the ACC Championship.

Instead, Syracuse QB Kyle McCord went off for 380 yards and three touchdowns, as Miami blew a 21-0 lead. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht ranks 15th nationally in passing yards with 22 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Watch for the Hurricanes to cover the spread, while the Cyclones provide enough scoring to reach the over.

Iowa State vs. Miami predictions and best bets

Why Miami could win as the favorite

Best odds: -185 at DraftKings Sportsbook

Miami has the travel advantage in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, taking place at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, FL. The Hurricanes are undefeated in Sunshine State games (Miami went on the road to beat Florida and South Florida).

Ward benefits from his favorite target, WR Xavier Restrepo, seemingly opting to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Restrepo hasn’t officially announced he’s sitting out, and the Hurricanes will need the ACC leader in receiving yards and touchdown catches. He’s a notable threat on long throws and reeled in a catch of 25+ yards in all but three games.

Miami’s defense had a miserable performance against Syracuse, but allowed the third-fewest passing yards per game in the ACC heading into that game. Three ‘Canes defensive linemen accounted for 5+ sacks. Miami will need to pressure Becht to slow down the Cyclones’ aerial attack.

Why Iowa State could win as the underdog

Best odds: +170 at Caesars Sportsbook

Miami’s recent history in bowl games is encouraging for Iowa State. The Hurricanes have lost five straight bowl matchups and have just one win in their last 11 appearances.

The Cyclones aren’t typically known for having a high-flying offense, but that narrative changed in 2024. WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel each surpassed 1,000 receiving yards, and they’re the only FBS WR duo to accomplish that feat.

Iowa State is unlikely to shut down Ward, but the Cyclones have been exceptional against the pass. All-Big 12 CBs Jontez Williams and Malik Verdon lead an Iowa State defense that surrendered 179 passing yards per game; the fewest in the conference.