Hurricane Rafael continued to strengthen on Wednesday as it neared Cuba, where it will make landfall later today.

The National Hurricane Center said Rafael had 100 mph winds on Wednesday morning and could be near Category 3 strength (111 mph winds and higher) by the time it nears Cuba’s southwestern coast.

Rafael will spread wind and rain as far east as parts of the Florida Keys, which are under a tropical storm warning.

Rafael is expected to cross over the island today and emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico tonight. The forecast track becomes more uncertain by this point, but the hurricane center’s long-range track shows the storm advancing northwestward toward the northern U.S. Gulf Coast over the weekend.

By the end of the forecast period, early Monday morning, Rafael could be well south of the Louisiana coast and at tropical storm strength.

The storm is expected to encounter much less favorable conditions as it advances northward in the Gulf.

The “cone of uncertainty” has shifted more to the west on Wednesday and now no longer includes the Alabama or Mississippi coasts. The cone only suggests where the center of the storm could go; effects could be felt far from the center.

As of 6 a.m. CST Wednesday, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located about 160 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba, and was tracking to the northwest at 14 mph.

Rafael had 100 mph winds, making it a Category 2 hurricane.

The hurricane center said that on the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon and make landfall in western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight.

The forecast track once Rafael is in the Gulf has shifted westward but is still very uncertain, forecasters said.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands over the next few hours, then will begin in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today, the hurricane center said.

Other parts of Cuba and the Florida Keys could experience tropical storm conditions today and tonight.

Rafael could bring 4 to 7 inches of rain to parts the Cayman Islands and Cuba. The Florida Keys and Jamaica could also get 1 to 3 inches of rain.

Rafael could bring a substantial storm surge of 9 to 13 feet along Cuba’s southern coast.

In the Keys, Rafael could bring 1 to 3 feet of storm surge and a few tornadoes.

Alabama forecasters will be keeping a close eye on Rafael’s track. Possible effects to the state as of Wednesday are expected to be minimal, but the storm will bring a continued high risk of rip currents and rough surf to the Alabama coast.

Parts of the state could also receive some rain, which could help with drought conditions.

Here are the watches and warnings on Wednesday:

* A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

* A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, the Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.