The National Hurricane Center will be keeping an eye on the southern Gulf this weekend, but there is only a low chance of a tropical storm forming.

The hurricane center on Friday highlighted an area of interest that will move into the Bay of Campeche in the coming days.

As of Friday that disturbance had only a 20 percent probability of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next week.

Forecasters said an area of disorganized rain and storms was in the northwest Caribbean and is expected to track to the west-northwest and into the southern Gulf Saturday or Saturday night. Once it’s there it could develop into an area of low pressure.

Here’s the disturbance on Friday morning in the Caribbean:

The hurricane center said the disturbance has a chance to gain some organization on Sunday or Monday — if it stays offshore and doesn’t move into southern Mexico.

Even if it doesn’t develop the system could bring heavy tropical downpours to parts of Belize, Guatemala and southeastern Mexico through the weekend.

The tropical Atlantic (which includes the Gulf and Caribbean) is typically quiet this time of year, and tropical activity tends to start to increase near the end of July and into August.

There has only been one named tropical storm in 2025 in the Atlantic, Andrea, and it was short-lived and didn’t affect land.

However, NOAA is expecting a busy hurricane season, with a high probability of more named storms than average.