Donald Trump won Alabama by a 27-point margin in the 2016 presidential election, and then came back with a 25-point win in the state during the 2020 contest.

They were both smashing victories. Alabama also remains a reliably red state this fall, where Trump is expected to easily win again.

But political observers are starting to wonder if it’s in Alabama where the former president’s overall political hopes might unravel.

In an irony not lost to observers, the Alabama State Supreme Court’s Feb. 16 ruling upending in vitro fertilization in Alabama that continues to penetrate wide-ranging political debates over reproductive health care, could prove to be the political poison of the state’s favorite politician.

IVF, experts say, is an issue proving to be difficult for Republicans running this fall.

“Alabama gave Democrats an issue they think will be a winner for them,” said Todd Belt, professor and director of political management at George Washington University. “If you look at the polling, it backs that.”

Indeed, polling shows that more than 80% of Americans back IVF procedures threated by the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling. An Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll in July showed about 6 in 10 U.S. adults support protecting access to IVF, a fertility treatment where eggs are combined with sperm outside the body in a lab to form an embryo.

A Navigator Research poll released in April showed that by a 39-point margin, people living in battleground House districts opposed the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling. Of those opposing, 58% live in a congressional district represented by a Republican lawmaker.

Given the tightness of the presidential race, where polling shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead over Trump, a question is surfacing: Could Alabama be blamed if Trump loses?

“There is something to that argument,” Belt says.

Democrats pounce

The biggest factor determining whether IVF consumes the remainder of the presidential race is whether the Alabama State Supreme Court rules, anew, on the matter.

The potential is there. The court is in a special session scheduled to last until early October, or about a month after a Mobile County Circuit judge could rule on whether to invalidate legal immunity protections granted to IVF providers by the Alabama Legislature.

The Legislature’s actions occurred during last spring’s session amid backlash to the high court’s ruling. The immunity question could return to the state’s justices depending on the outcome by the lower court.

According to Corinn O’Brien, founder of Fight for Alabama Families, 155 families have successfully used IVF to achieve pregnancy since the IVF immunity law was passed in March.

“If the Alabama State Supreme Court overturns the Legislature’s immunity, this wound will be reopened exposing the rift,” said Susan Pace Hamill, a professor at the University of Alabama School of Law. “I don’t believe the Justice (Tom) Parker’s of the Alabama Supreme Court care.”

Indeed, much could be at stake over the politics of IVF that were born out of the Alabama Supreme Court’s building in Montgomery. Much of the focus, and bipartisan criticism, has been directed at Parker, the Supreme Court’s Chief Justice, invoked biblical scripture while writing in LePage v. The Center for Reproductive Medicine and Mobile Infirmary, that frozen embryos used during IVF should be considered living beings and that clinics should be liable for their accidental loss under state law.

IVF clinics throughout the state, following the court’s order, began to suspend operations even though Republicans including Attorney General Steve Marshall, vowed not to prosecute IVF families or providers.

Democrats pounced and continue to do so by linking IVF and the conservative court’s ruling to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that overturned federal rights to abortion provided in the 1972 landmark case, Roe v. Wade.

The Democrats are also connecting Trump, who appointed three conservative justices to the U.S. Supreme Court who were instrumental in overturning Roe, to the upending of IVF in Alabama.

The U.S. Supreme Court could also get involved in the Alabama IVF case. The Center for Reproductive Medicine and Mobile Infirmary are requesting the U.S. Supreme Court consider their arguments that the plaintiffs in the Alabama case lacked standing to sue and that their due process protections were violated.

The Supreme Court is expected to decide whether to consider the case on Sept. 4.

“Donald Trump threw IVF into jeopardy by orchestrating the fall of Roe v. Wade and paved the way for the Alabama Supreme Court’s decision that ripped away families’ access to the procedure,” said Stephanie Justice, a spokesperson for the Democratic National Committee.

The Alabama Democratic Party is also connecting abortion with IVF and tying the conservative courts together. “The fall of Roe v. Wade has led to nothing but chaos across this country in the two years since and Alabama’s IVF decision has further exacerbated the heartbreak and confusion for those seeking to be parents by in vitro fertilization.”

Republican criticism

Republicans say the Democrats are not being accurate in their assessments and political posturing. They note that Trump has stated that IVF should remain legal.

John Wahl, chairman of the Alabama State GOP, has also repeatedly said the Democratic Party and the “leftist mainstream media” are distorting the underlying case in Alabama and are using it as a “political weapon.”

“The decision by the Alabama Supreme Court was actually in support of families engaged in the IVF process,” Wahl said.

The case stems from a 2020 accident at the Center for Reproductive Medicine in Mobile. A patient is alleged to have improperly accessed a cryogenic freezer where embryos were stored, removed them, and then dropped them onto the floor after suffering cold burns to the hand.

In 2021, three couples filed lawsuits in Mobile County blaming the Center of wrongful death, negligence, and breach of contract.

Since then, two of the couples involved in that case have dropped their wrongful death lawsuits.

“If you look at what really happened in Alabama, this court case originated with families asking for help and a redress of grievance after they were victimized, losing the children they had hoped and prayed to bring into this world,” Wahl said. “The Alabama Republican Party has consistently demonstrated its commitment to protecting all human life, and speaking for those who have no voice. Liberal talking heads from around the country should remember what this case was about, and not twist it for their own agenda.”

Republican U.S. Sen. Katie Britt has also blamed Democrats for distorting and misrepresenting the GOP’s stance on IVF. Britt and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz co-sponsored legislation that would have withheld Medicaid funding from any state that passes a ban on IVF, but it did not receive support from Democrats. Likewise, a Senate Democratic version aiming to establish IVF as a federal right, did not muster enough Republican support.

“IVF is legal and available in every state across the nation, including Alabama,” Britt said in a statement. “Along with President Trump, Senator (J.D.) Vance, and every one of my Senate Republican colleagues, I strongly support continued nationwide access to IVF, which is profoundly pro-family.”

Belt said for Republicans, part of the political problem has to do with the fact they are having to explain the nuances of the issue that are polling well for Democrats.

“There is an old saying in politics that if you’re explaining, you’re losing,” he said.

National fallout

Belt also noted the IVF stance of conservative religious organizations, which muddy the political waters for Republicans on the issue.

The Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission of the Southern Baptist Convention, in a statement to AL.com last week, equated the transfer of embryos from Alabama’s fertility clinics to other locations as akin to “abortion travel and tourism.”

The Southern Baptist Convention, the country’s largest Protestant denomination, formally passed a resolution in June condemning IVF.

According to the New York Times, several state Republican parties have also passed resolutions taking a stand against common IVF procedures. In Idaho, the state GOP platform added “the destruction of human embryos” to its platform of things it opposes, according to the publication. A similar line already exists in the North Carolina GOP’s platform.

Further fallout on the issue is expected throughout the fall as Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, are expected to highlight the issue during the Democratic National Convention next week in Chicago.

Walz and his wife, Gwin, used fertility treatments to conceive their children.

“It further highlights the issue and pushes it to the forefront when you have someone on the ticket that is invested into it as much as he is,” Belt said.

Down ballot races

IVF is also taking center stage in down ballot races throughout the country, meaning that the Alabama State Supreme Court’s ruling could also play a significant role in determining the majority in the narrowly divided U.S. House next year.

In the New Jersey’s competitive 7th congressional district race, Democratic hopeful Sue Altman is hammering incumbent Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr. for not supporting a U.S. House bill enshrining federal protections for IVF into law.

The Alabama case looms large in a race occurring in a House district more than 950 miles from Montgomery. Kean, who said he was “deeply disturbed” by the Alabama Supreme Court’s ruling, has since pitched a proposal to offer income tax credits for people seeking IVF. But Altman has pounced, saying that Kean is not doing enough to stand up against the “extremists” who want to dismantle IVF.

According to a report by Politico, reproductive rights remain a top concern for Democrats in other down ballot races in New York and California.

“I certainly think this is a big issue and among the top priorities and will continue to be among the top priorities for Democrats,” said Alabama State Rep. Anthony Daniels, D-Huntsville, who sponsored state legislation last year to define a fertilized embryo as not being a child. “Our job should be to continue keeping this issue front and center for Alabamians and Americans.”

The issue is also playing out in the 2nd congressional district race in Alabama between Republican Caroleene Dobson and Democrat Shomari Figures. Dobson, in statements, has said she supports IVF and backs Britt’s legislation. Figures, though, said Dobson’s support for state authority in determining abortion rights is illustrative of an “extreme” philosophy that has led to IVF’s embattlement in Alabama.

Alabama is one of 14 states to have a total ban on abortion since 2022.

Jess Brown, a retired political science professor at Athens State University and a longtime observer of Alabama state politics, said he does not believe the Alabama State Supreme Court will jump back into reproductive issues before the Nov. 5 election.

“Could they? Yes,” Brown said. “Will they? I don’t know. Most of these (justices) want to get on that bench and remain a low profile and, after 18 years, enjoy the best retirement system in all of public sector retirement.”

He added, “It won’t be good politics for Republicans either nationally or in Alabama.”