At a Thursday press conference, Auburn head coach Hugh Freeze announced Payton Thorne as Auburn’s starting quarterback to open the 2023 season against UMass.

It’s the expected outcome of a three-way battle that extended longer than anticipated over the summer and at the beginning of fall camp. Thorne transferred to Auburn from Michigan State at the beginning of May — after spring practices had already concluded.

He will be the second straight transfer quarterback to open the season for Auburn after LSU transfer T.J. Finley started last season. Auburn switched from Finley to another transfer — Robby Ashford — part way through last season and Thorne beat Ashford for the starting job this year.

Head coach Hugh Freeze has not necessarily ruled out using a two-quarterback system at Auburn. And while Thorne is at the helm, his time at Michigan State may actually provide a blueprint to why we could succeed, or not, as Auburn’s starter.

Why Thorne will succeed as Auburn’s starter

Thorne has one clear thing none of the other quarterback options have: experience.

He started 26 games at Michigan State and played in 29. Over the course of his career, Thorne has completed 61% of his passes for 6,493 yards. He had 49 touchdowns and 49 interceptions.

Certainly, his best year as a starter came in 2021 where he led Michigan State to an 11-2 final record and a Peach Bowl win.

Thorne threw for 3,232 yards in 2021 along with 27 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

But what allowed Thorne to be so successful? It starts with the guy he handed the ball off to.

Kenneth Walker III transferred to Michigan State for that season from Wake Forest. Walker became a superstar as a dominant rusher, winning the Doak Walker award given to the nation’s top running back. He rushed for more than 1,600 yards and then went on to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks and rushed for more than 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2022.

Walker opened up the entire Michigan State offense has defenses had to focus on him and even when they did, Walker kept putting up gaudy stats.

His shoulders took quite the weight of Thorne’s in his first year as the full-time starter.

And as a result, Jayden Reed had over 1,000 receiving yards. Jalen Nailor had nearly 700 himself.

Give Payton Thorne a running game he can rely on, and he’s proven to be an effective passer — and a winner.

That could certainly happen at Auburn this fall. The Tigers have lots of options. Jarquez Hunter appears in line for a breakout year after working behind Tank Bigsby most of last season and playing very well at the end of the 2022 season.

There are other options too, with Damari Alston and Brian Battie to add speed out of the backfield behind Hunter’s all-around skillset.

Auburn’s offensive line could be significantly improved from a year ago. Three transfers — Gunner Britton from Western Kentucky, Avery Jones from East Carolina and Dillon Wade from Tulsa — have made immediate impacts and received lots of praise from their teammates and coaches.

Thorne doesn’t have to be “Superman” as offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery said. He doesn’t have the same high ceiling as other top quarterbacks in the SEC. Frankly he might not have the highest ceiling on his own team.

But he’s reliable and experienced. Give him the help of a running game and he’s shown he can be effective.

Why Thorne will fail as Auburn’s starter

Well, Auburn’s got a deep running back room. But it doesn’t seem likely that a Kenneth Walker-type player is walking through that door any time soon.

And when Michigan State didn’t have a running game, Thorne regressed.

After Walker went on to the NFL, Michigan State didn’t have the same type of running game that propelled it to a New Year’s Six bowl the year prior.

Walker had more than 1,600 yards in 2021. Michigan State’s leading rusher in 2022, Jalen Berger, had 683.

Without a particularly effective running game, Thorne had 2,679 passing yards in 2022. He threw eight fewer touchdowns than 2021 and threw one more interception.

Michigan State went 5-7 in 2022.

Thorne stayed in East Lansing through spring practices before entering the transfer portal in late April and coming to Auburn in late May, soon after T.J. Finley transferred to Texas State.

Thorne is not going to be a quarterback to win games on his own. Auburn picked him over the two higher ceiling options in Robby Ashford and Holden Geriner because he’s the one they can rely on to make fewer mistakes than the other two.

But when Thorne doesn’t get much help, he struggled.

Outside of Jarquez Hunter and tight end Rivaldo Fairweather, Auburn has many questions on offense. Frankly, Hunter still has questions as he’s never had a full season as the top running back.

The running game could include Robby Ashford too, in whatever role Auburn formulates for him.

The new offensive line has gotten positive reviews, but the collection of transfers is still yet to play a game together.

The wide receiver room has been a constant rotation of around six-to-seven players — and potentially more coming later on due to injuries. Freeze is happy with his wide receiver group, but it doesn’t have the look of a unit that will produce Auburn’s first 1,000-yard receiver in more than a decade.

Thorne seems to have a reliable target in Fairweather, but he’ll need one of the wide receivers to step up as a go-to option. It isn’t clear exactly who that will be.

If those options don’t materialize, Throne will have a lot more to do on his own. If the offensive line struggles, it doesn’t really matter who is playing quarterback.

If the running game struggles, whether it’s Hunter, Alston, Ashford of even Thorne’s own legs, it could mean another situation where he struggles.

Auburn will likely have to put Thorne in a position to succeed and less so Thorne putting Auburn in a position to win. On paper, Auburn has the pieces to do that.

Should that not pan-out? Thorne isn’t cleaning up that mess by himself.

Matt Cohen covers Auburn sports for AL.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @Matt_Cohen_ or email him at [email protected]