How much will massive dome impact Alabama shooters? Players, data weigh in

The Final Four’s a special intersection of trends and myths colliding with superstitions and a massive football stadium masquerading as a Costco-sized basketball gym.

State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona looks absolutely nothing like any setting in which Alabama’s ever played a game. Even Coleman Coliseum’s famous airplane-hangar space is dwarfed by the home of the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals.

With that comes a perception about shooting struggles. And with Alabama facing long odds and a physical top-ranked UConn on Saturday night, few upset scenarios include anything but a lights-out shooting night from the Crimson Tide.

So, is it true?

Does the vacuous football dome create an unfair shooting eye at the worst possible moment?

The data says says no.

A study published in 2017 and updated in 2018 debunked the idea that the depth perception shifts in football stadiums reduce shooting percentages. Teams shot 34.4% from the 3-point line in football dome games with a center-court layout like State Farm Stadium’s in tournament games from 2006-17. That’s actually higher than games in standard arenas (33.9%) and considerably better than domes with courts positioned in the football endzone (31.6%).

And what does this mean for an Alabama team that scores 37% of its points (21st highest piece of the pie nationally) entering Saturday’s game with UConn?

AL.com spoke with the primary shooters from a team that made 37.1% of its 3s this season.

Mark Sears, true on 43.4% of his 3-point tries, isn’t worried about the backdrop changing in Glendale.

“Not really,” he said. “Once you get locked in and break sweat and make a couple baskets, it’s going to be normal.”

On Thursday, freshman Jarin Stevenson said he hadn’t even considered the depth perception factor until asked in a pre-practice interview. He smiled Friday when asked for an update from the workout Thursday.

“It’s definitely a different feel,” said Stevenson who made 5 of 8 from the perimeter in the Elite Eight win over Clemson. “But it was good getting out there and seeing the environment.”

Much of the talk around dome misfires centered around the 2011 Final Four played in the Houston home of the NFL Texans. UConn beat Butler in that title game by a bizarrely low 53-41 final that saw the Bulldogs shoot an embarrassing 18.8% from the field.

But five years later, North Carolina and Villanova helped dispel the myth by shooting a gaudy 61% on 3-pointers in the title game played in the same dome — making a metric-bending 19 of 31 attempts from long range.

The only other time the Final Four was played in Glendale, Arizona was 2017. Teams combined to shoot 36% from 3-point range (31-for-86) in semifinal games.

Before this week, Aaron Estrada might have been the only Alabama players with experience in a setting like this. As a freshman at Oregon, the transfer didn’t see game action in a dome game but practiced and warmed up there.

“I felt a difference,” he said. Just the backdrop and everything and the perception of where everybody is behind the court. It’s just crazy.”

Alabama assistant coach Ryan Pannone works a lot with shooters and said this is one of those things that battles perception with reality.

“The reality of it is our guys, over the course of their lives, have taken hundreds of thousands of shots,” he said Friday. “So from a depth perception, yes. From a confidence standpoint, no. This is what we’ve worked our whole lives for. So to shoot with confidence in an arena like this is why you’re a good shooter. And playing for a coach that gives you the confidence where if you’re open and you don’t shoot it, you’re coming out of the game.”

Alabama’s been particularly hot shooting since the tournament started. The Crimson Tide is shooting 41.4% from 3-point range (48-for-116) to better the season hit rate of 37.1%.

Sears is making 44.7% (17-for-38) while Rylan Griffen is right at 50% (11-for-22).

Griffen wasn’t sweating the change in environment.

“No, for me, all that stuff is mental,” he said. “For me, just shoot the same way every time, just shoot the way that got me here. We have to get used to the dome with all the space. But as far as rims and all that, just keep it consistent.”

Several players talked more about the importance of the rims rather than the backdrop.

Sam Walters, a freshman who made 3 of 10 perimeter shots in the tournament and 39.4% for the season, bucks the trend. Where most like loose rims, he likes them tight.

“I don’t think it will impact me that much,” Walters said Thursday. “Wherever I shoot, I have confidence it’s going to go in. So I don’t think it’s going to impact me too much.”

By Friday, he reported the rims at State Farm Stadium met his standards.

“The rims are really good, actually. I love them,” he said. “The depth perception was different but I feel prepared and feel like I shot pretty well yesterday in practice.”

Pannone laughed when told Walters likes tight rims.

“He swishes a lot,” he said, noting it doesn’t matter what kind of rim he faces.

And the coach said rim tightness is another factor that’s mostly mental.

“The reality is I don’t know,” he said. “Sometimes shooters can be superstitious. They come in and say this rim is a little tight. But does it actually matter? I’m not sure.”

Sears said he was particularly fond of the rims at Alabama’s last NCAA venue, Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. He made 7 of 14 deep balls against Clemson including a 6-for-7 second-half heater.

Before playing in a new arena, Sears said he pays particular attention to the rims.

“Just knowing the kind of touch you need to have it go through the rim,” Sears said is important to his process. “Once you see the first one go through, it’s just a big old basket.”

Bottom line: It’s all in the eye — and the head — of the shooter.

But it’ll be something worth watching closely Saturday evening as Alabama aims to take down the defending national champs in a setting unlike any Crimson Tide player’s seen.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.