“Rome was destroyed, Greece was destroyed, Persia was destroyed, Spain was destroyed. All great countries are destroyed. Why not yours? How much longer do you really think your own country will last? Forever? Keep in mind that the earth itself is destined to be destroyed by the sun in 25 million years or so.”- Joseph Heller

The whispers start nearly every time Alabama football loses a game.

“The dynasty is dying.”

“The empire is crumbling.”

Nick Saban’s tenure in Tuscaloosa is in its 17th season, and has been an era of immense success for the Crimson Tide. Six national titles, nine SEC championships, four Heisman Trophy winners; UA has been the unquestioned power in college football.

The longevity of Saban’s success has been unparalleled in modern college football. Even when it appeared to be nearing an end, he pulled it back to glory, whether by modernizing his offense around 2014 or upsetting Georgia in the SEC title game this season.

Still, the narrative continues. Saban’s career is in its end stages, surely Alabama will return to earth soon.

“O tempora, o mores!” Roman orator Cicero said in 63 BC.

Translated from Latin, meaning “Oh the times! Oh the customs!”

Cicero was denouncing his political rival, Catiline, who had attempted to violently seize control over the Roman state, questioning how a man who he perceived as so obviously deserving had not yet been executed. Similarly, the Alabama dynasty has been perceived as on the brink of collapse numerous times through the years, with the needed elements in place, but the ultimate fall has never happened.

There’s that word again. “Dynasty.”

It gets used often when referring to the Crimson Tide under Saban, along with “Empire.”

But those words have meanings outside of football. A dynasty, according to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, refers to “a succession of rulers of the same line of descent” or “a powerful group or family that maintains its position for a considerable time.”

That second definition is more applicable to UA football. The dictionary also includes a definition of empire that works, explaining it to be “something resembling a political empire,” especially “an extensive territory or enterprise under single domination or control.”

Obviously, a historic empire, be it the Roman, Macedonian, Persian, Mongol or otherwise, is a different beast from what Nick Saban has built. But maybe those ancient civilizations have some sort of historical parallel to the current football team in Tuscaloosa.

Perhaps they could be studied and give some clue as to whether the Alabama dynasty is on the brink of a fall, even as it prepares for another College Football Playoff appearance.

Or perhaps not.

“There just is no way to make a credible comparison between a college football team and an actual empire,” one college history professor said while declining to be interviewed by AL.com.

But why not try?

Thinking about the Roman empire

If you believe 18th century historian Edward Gibbon, the eventual fall of the Roman empire was largely due to internal issues.

“The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness,” Gibbons wrote in his six volume history The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. “Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight.”

In Gibbon’s view, Rome had grown comfortable. Moral decay had taken hold and the empire was soft and ripe for the picking.

Rome was also divided religiously according to Gibbon. Christianity had taken hold, leading to an increasingly “turn-the-other-cheek” military policy.

If he’s right, there’s not much that’s comparable to Saban and the Tide’s situation. Throughout his career, he’s dedicated himself to the process, never letting any of the necessary ingredients for maintaining dominance slip away, regardless of how secure UA’s hold on college football has seemed.

This far into his career, Saban still won’t even admit that Alabama’s yearly buy games should be cakewalks for a team full of five-stars.

“Every player shouldn’t be focused on who they’re playing against relative to their motivation, but every player should want to be the best player they can be,” Saban said last season after Alabama beat Texas before playing Louisiana-Monroe. “So why would it matter whether we’re playing Texas or playing somebody else? That’s how you get good. That’s how you develop the right habits. That’s how you’re consistent.”

The risk of Alabama turning soft in the long-term under Saban seems minimal. Score one for the Crimson Tide against the Roman empire.

But the Western Roman empire lasted for hundreds of years (the Eastern portion, usually known as the Byzantine empire, went even longer). The reasons for its fall were numerous and complicated.

Peter Heather, in his 2005 book, The Fall of the Roman Empire: A New History, disagreed with Gibbon’s assertion that the primary reason for the decline was internal. Heather thought the growth of the Barbarians that assailed the empire had simply grown stronger, due in part to years of contact with Rome.

“Rather than talking of internal Roman ‘weaknesses’ predestining the late imperial system to collapse, it makes more sense to talk of ‘limitations’– military, economic and political– which made it impossible for the west to deal with the particular crisis in the fifth century,” Heather wrote. These internal limitations were a necessary factor in, but not themselves sufficient cause for, imperial collapse. Without the barbarians, there is not the slightest evidence that the western Empire would have ceased to exist in the fifth century.”

This is the theory that sounds the most like Alabama. The Crimson Tide has dealt with other programs winning titles during Saban’s tenure, like Clemson, LSU and Ohio State.

Most of those have taken a dive soon thereafter, none of them achieving the longevity of the Saban machine. But lately, things have changed.

Georgia won the last two national championships in a row, beating the Tide in the 2022 CFP title game. The Bulldogs are led by former UA defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.

Texas beat Alabama in Week 2 of this season, prompting the latest round of “dynasty is dead” declarations, and is playing Washington in the CFP semifinals on Saturday. The Longhorns are coached by ex-Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian.

“We’re obviously playing one of the best teams in college football, if not the best team in college football,” Saban said before facing Georgia in the SEC title game this year. “Kirby’s done a fantastic job there. I don’t think people realize how hard it is to win 29 games in a row, or even be 12-0 in a season. So, they’ve got really good players. They’re really well coached.”

Teams tried hiring Saban assistants for years. It didn’t always work out, but that’s changed.

Other programs are following Saban’s process and it’s working. Alabama is in the playoff once again, after beating Georgia in the SEC championship, but it’s possible that the UA dynasty’s impact on college football could be working against it.

Succession

Comparing the Alabama dynasty to most historical empires becomes even more difficult considering the end of Saban’s tenure isn’t yet known.

Saban’s run has already outlived the Macedonian empire’s time under Alexander the Great. The famous leader’s rule lasted just 13 years, during which time he most famously went on a conquest of Asia Minor, defeating the Persian Empire along the way.

Then he died. When that happened, things went downhill.

According to R.M. Arrington’s 1990 History of Macedonia, it was largely Alexander’s fault.

“Alexander had taken all possible advantage from the institution of the monarchy but had much weakened it by the increasingly personalized structure of the court and the officer corps,” Arrington wrote. “His evasive answer to the question of who should inherit his empire, “the best” or “the strongest” (the sources vary),reveals this emphasis on personality; institutions and traditions were no longer respected, and the personal qualities of the individual were decisive.”

After plunging into civil war, Alexander’s Macedonian empire broke into three kingdoms. Just like others, from the Mongols to the Persians to the Romans, succession problems hurt.

The issue hasn’t come up yet for the Crimson Tide, so the comparison isn’t quite applicable yet. Still, Alabama athletic director Greg Byrne will likely have the biggest decision of his career coming when Saban eventually retires.

There will be a successor, someone who isn’t Nick Saban will be the head coach of the Crimson Tide. Perhaps then, UA’s chokehold on the sport could be weakened.

But the idea of the dead dynasty might be a flawed one in this case, even if Alabama goes through a period where it’s not winning at the current clip. The reason goes back to Alexander.

“Maybe Alexander was great because he had an enormous impact on the world after his death,” Crash Course World History host John Green said in a 2012 video on Alexander the Great. “Like King Tut, Alexander was amazingly good at being a dead person.”

Green pointed out Alexander’s immense impact on other empire-builders, from the Romans, to Napoleon Bonapart. Alexander spread a common language across his empire, and affected culture and military strategy well beyond it.

Perhaps the same could be true of Saban’s Alabama empire. Even when he moves on from the sport, and even if the Tide falls down a rung or two in the ensuing years, the effect will still be there.

Whether it’s through Kirby Smart, Steve Sarkisian, Dan Lanning, coaches not yet well-known, or their successors, the Saban dynasty’s impact will be felt for years to come.

Maybe even forever.