A top-10 showdown in the Big 12 Conference caps Big Monday on ESPN tonight when No. 4-ranked Houston visits No. 10 Texas Tech. The game will be televised on ESPN at 9 p.m. ET.

Houston (23-4 SU, 15-12 ATS) can take a big step toward the Big 12 regular season championship with a win over the Red Raiders (21-6 SU, 15-12 ATS). Texas Tech would be eliminated from contention with a loss. If Houston wins, it would only need one more win in its last three games or one Arizona loss.

Texas Tech beat Houston at Houston 82-81 in overtime on Feb. 1. The Red Raiders’ JT Toppin, who leads the team with 17.1 points and 7.1 rebounds, was ejected four minutes into that game. Texas Tech’s second-leading scorer and one of the best three-point shooters in the nation Chance McMillian could miss tonight’s game with an injury.

Houston is a 1- or 1.5-point favorite Monday. The over/under ranges from 131 to 132 points. Here are our Houston vs. Texas Tech predictions and best bets.

Houston vs. Texas Tech predictions and best bets

• Texas Tech +1.5 (-108 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Over 131 (-110 at bet365 Sportsbook)

Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.

From a pure basketball standpoint, this should be an incredible game — one a non-Houston or non-Texas Tech fan can enjoy without having action on the outcome. We’re going to analyze a few wagers anyway.

The obvious pick is Houston if you believe in the revenge angle. Since the 2021-22 season, Houston has averaged 2.6 conference losses per season. The only team to sweep the Cougars was Memphis when they were in the American Athletic Conference.

It would be incredible for Texas Tech to score a season sweep.

This spread opened with Houston favored by 1.5 points, and public money at DraftKings Sportsbook came in on the Cougars. As of early Monday afternoon, Houston had received 69% percent of the handle and 73% of the bets. So why wouldn’t the point spread move in Houston’s favor?

The line doesn’t move in situations like this because sportsbooks don’t want to give a better number to contrarian bettors who might make bigger wagers. In other words, oddsmakers believe more than the public that there is a better chance the Red Raiders will win.

Generally speaking, you want to be on the side of the sportsbook, so I’m going with Texas Tech in what should be a toss-up game.

Also, Texas Tech matches up well with Houston. Toppin can give UH leading rebounders J’Wan Roberts and Joseph Tugler all they can handle down low. The Cougars rank third in the nation in 3-point shooting at 40%, but Texas Tech isn’t far behind at 38.4% (14th nationally).

Both teams are good but not great at defending the three. Both teams have too much strong long-distance shooting to feel great about the Under, so I’m siding with the Over.

McMillian is questionable for tonight’s game, but after he missed Saturday’s game, McCasland said he could have played if it was the last game of the season. It’s reasonable to think he was resting to be closer to full strength for tonight’s game.

His presence would boost Texas Tech’s chances of winning and hitting the Over.

Houston vs. Texas Tech moneyline odds analysis

Why Houston team could win as the favorite

Best odds: -114 at FanDuel Sportsbook

What’s not to like about a team that has won 19 of its last 20 games, including significant victories over Arizona and Iowa State?

Coach Kelvin Sampson has built a juggernaut in Clutch City, and the Cougars have become the best team in the Big 12. They have always been strong defensively, and this season they are one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the nation.

This is the kind of game the Cougars have won plenty of times in recent seasons. Don’t be surprised if it happens if they get another one on Monday.

Why Texas Tech could win as the underdog

Best odds: +105 at BetMGM Sportsbook

To beat Houston, a team has to have grit and toughness to beat Houston. Texas Tech has all kinds of it with second-year coach Grant McCasland.

Several times this season, the Red Raiders have been less than full-strength and scored big victories. Toppin missing most of the first Houston game is the best example. Without McMillian against West Virginia on Saturday, they won by 22 points.

Armed with that toughness and the confidence of already defeating Houston, Texas Tech will not be intimidated Monday night.