Home Run Derby predictions and best bets: Will Cal Raleigh continue to rake?
The 2025 MLB Home Run Derby is set for 8 p.m. ET on Monday at Atlanta’s Truist Park. While some big names such as Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge and Ronald Acuna Jr. will not be participating, there are still some notable power hitters that will headline the annual marquee event.
Seattle’s Cal Raleigh is coming off a historic first half of the season, on his way to possibly logging the most home runs ever hit by a catcher. His 38 homers set an American League record for most before the All-Star break and were also the most ever by a catcher before the break.
At +300, Raleigh is the favorite to win the 2025 HR derby, but Washington’s James Wood (+425) should also be a top contender, as he is truly delivering an impressive breakthrough season. Matt Olson (+800), who is replacing Acuna, will naturally be the favorite for the home crowd. Junior Caminero is a very tempting longshot, too, at +1200.
There are several markets to wager on at DraftKings Sportsbook, including the HR Derby winner, finalists, total HRs overall, longest homer, Exit Velocity and more. We feature our favorite bets for the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby.
*All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook*
2025 MLB Home Run Derby Winner Odds
- Cal Raleigh +300
- Oneil Cruz +330
- James Wood +425
- Matt Olson +800
- Brent Rooker +850
- Byron Buxton +950
- Jazz Chisholm +1100
- Junior Caminero +1200
MLB Home Run Derby Winner: James Wood
Odds: +425 at DraftKings Sportsbook
Raleigh seems to be the obvious pick, but Wood will certainly give him a strong battle. The rising Nationals standout has a significant edge over Raleigh in Average HR Distance, 411 to 386 feet. Wood is top 15 in MLB in Average HR Distance, and Raleigh is 180th.
Wood is eighth in the Majors in average Exit Velocity (93.6) and Raleigh is 41st (91.8), per Baseball Savant. The Nationals slugger leads MLB in HR/FB rate at 32.4 percent, and the Mariners’ catcher is sixth at 27.0 percent.
Wood is 14 HRs behind Raleigh for the season, yet the 6-foot-7, 234-pounder can simply let loose for natural power in this event, even though Raleigh has stacked up more HRs during normal regular-season play.
Raleigh is a favorite to be a finalist at +130, and Wood offers an even better return at +220. Caminero, who is 12th in MLB in HR/FB rate at 22.1 percent, is an inviting finalist wager at +500.
Matt Olson Over 18.5 Home Runs in First Round
Odds: -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook
I am not forecasting Olson to win the 2025 HR Derby or be a finalist, but he will want to put on a good showing in front of the home folks as the Acuna replacement. Let’s not forget Olson hit 54 HRs in 2023, so he can be a contender to make it out of the first round when unleashing his pure power. I give him an extra edge on an early shot of adrenaline in his home park,
Olson’s Hard Hit Percentage of 54.4 percent for the first half of the season is the second-highest of his career in any season, with the 2023 mark of 55.1 percent in 2023 being higher. The average Exit Velocity of 93.8 is a career best, just ahead of 93.7 in ’23. Don’t wager on Olson for the full tournament, yet there is a good chance he will shine early on before exiting to a big ovation.
Most First Round Home Runs Head-to-Head: Byron Buxton Over Brent Rooker
Odds: -115 on DraftKings Sportsbook
Buxton should be a quality pick in several head-to-head matchups, and he is the best all-around player of any guy in the competition. It is good to see him healthy and getting the opportunity to fully reveal his natural pop. He owns the seventh-highest Isolated Power (.285) in MLB and the second-best of any hitter in the HR Derby. His Hard Hit Percentage of 55.3 is a career-high so far.
Player to record Highest Exit Velocity on an HR: Oneil Cruz
Odds: -135 at DraftKings Sportsbook
This is the advanced category that simply belongs to Cruz. He leads the Majors in average Exit Velocity (96.3) and Maximum EV (122.9). Every other competitor is at plus odds. Wager two units when going with Cruz. Wood, who is at +320, is second to Cruz in both EV categories among the HR Derby participants.
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