Harris vs. Trump: Trump maintains lead in key state, poll shows

Former President Donald Trump is maintaining his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in a key – and traditionally Republican – state, according to a recent poll.

The poll, published yesterday by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, showed likely voters in Texas backed Trump 49.5% compared to 44.6% for Harris. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy came in a distant third with 2% of likely voters and about 2.7% remain undecided. No other candidate scored about 1%.

The poll was first reported by The Hill.

The latest numbers showed a slight increase for Trump of 0.6 percentage points since the poll was last conducted in June. It’s the first time Harris has been included in the poll and her numbers reflect a 4.3 percentage point increase from that of President Joe Biden, who exited the race in July.

“Harris has made considerable headway among voters both in Texas and nationally in the short time since she entered the race last month,” Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director at the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, told The Hill.

Demographic breakdowns for the two candidates mirrored recent national polling. Trump holds an 18 percentage point lead over Harris among men in Texas – 56% to 38% – while more women in the state favor Harris 50% to 44%. In June, Trump held a 4 percent point lead over Biden among Texas women, pollsters said.

Fifty-seven percent of white Texans intend to vote for Trump compared to 38% for Harris compared to 77% of Black people in the state who said they supported the Democratic nominee to 17% for the Republican. The two candidates were essentially tied among Latino Texans – 47% for Trump and 46% for Harris.

Trump polled highest among older voters while Generation Z – voters born in the late 1990s – backed Harris 55% to 38%. Those figures mark a big change from earlier polling when 39% of Gen Z voters said they were backing Biden compared to 42% for Trump.

The poll was conducted Aug. 5-16 in English and Spanish It has a margin of error of plus/minus 2.65 percentage points.