Harris vs. Trump: Presidential election ‘Nostradamus’ makes final prediction on who will win
A historian and election forecaster who has successfully predicted the last nine out of 10 presidential elections is sticking by his forecast.
Democratic nominee Kamala Harris will beat Republican Donald Trump during the Nov. 5 election to become the first female president, Allan Lichtman predicts. Known as the “Nostradamus” of elections, the latest forecast matches his earlier predictions, USA Today reported, despite the Vice President’s lead in battleground states shrinking and polls that show a neck-and-neck race.
“Nothing has changed to change my prediction that I made on Sept. 5, in defiance of the polls,” Lichtman said in a YouTube video.
Lichtman, a historian at American University, predicted in September Harris would win the race. He bases his forecast on 13-true-or-false questions – or “keys” – on the candidates and not on current polling.
Litchman’s 13 keys are:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the House than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third-party: There is no significant campaign from a third party or independent candidate.
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: Incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: No sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: Incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: Incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: Incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: Incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: Challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Lichtman maintained the eight “keys” he deemed “true” favored Harris and were unchanged since September. Three were deemed “false” and favored Trump: White House party gained House seats in the 2022 mid-terms, the sitting president is running for reelection and the determination that Harris wasn’t a particularly charismatic candidate.
Two other keys – foreign policy failure or success – were a toss up and could be pivotal.
Lichtman developed “The Keys to the White House” with a partner in 1981 and used them to look at past election cycles retrospectively. He’s been correct in every prediction except one – the 2000 election in which he incorrectly predicted a win by Al Gore.