The latest presidential poll shows a likely split in the popular vote vs. the Electoral College.

TIPP’s national poll has Vice President Kamala Harris leading over former President Donald Trump 49% to 46% The poll was conducted among 1,228 likely voters with a margin of error of plus/minus 2.8%.

The latest numbers are in keeping with TIPP’s three previous daily polls which had Harris tracking about 3-4 percentage points ahead of Trump.

While the polls show Harris leading in the popular vote, TIPP projects Trump winning the Electoral College. The projects were based on three models: polling data, betting markets and a combination of both.

Based on polls, Trump would beat Harris 271 to 267 in the Electoral College, giving Republicans a 54.3% chance of winning compared to 44.6% for Democrats. Betting markets put Trump ahead 277-261, boosting his chances of winning to 64.1% compared to Harris at 34.5%.

A combination of the two shows Trump defeating Harris 273 to 265 for a win probability of 58.8% while Harris has a 39.6% chance.

A nominee needs 270 Electoral College votes – more than half of all electors –  to win the race.

“The 2024 race is much tighter than in 2016 and 2020,” pollsters said. “Trump has an advantage right now since he has a history of underperformance in polls due to silent voters in many battleground states.”

The simulation model was based on 1 million trials using polling averages for each state, according to TIPP.

Unhappy with nation’s path

The poll showed most Americans have a deep dissatisfaction with the direction the country is headed. TIPP showed 66% of Americans are unhappy with the nation’s path, including 62% of Republicans and 43% of independents. Forty-percent of Democrats said they were discontent.

“This sentiment represents a significant hurdle for incumbents,” pollsters said.