The latest average of presidential polls shows a major change in the race for the White House with presumptive Democrat nominee Kamala Harris taking the lead over former President Donald Trump.

FiveThirtyEIght.com’s polling average through Aug. 4 shows Harris leading Trump by 1.6 percentage points – 45.3% to 43.7%. It’s the first time Harris has overtaken Trump, the Republican nominee who held a comfortable lead over Joe Biden before the president dropped out of the race in July.

According to FiveThirtyEight.com, 95% of polling averages are expected to fall within this range.

Surging Democrats

Among the polls included in the average is one from CBS News and YouGov that shows Harris with a 1 percentage point advantage – 50% to 49%. That advantage increases to 2 percentage points when independent Robert F. Kennedy is factored in with 49% for Harris, 47% for Trump and 2% for Kennedy.

The poll shows women and men are split on who they are backing with 54% of women backing Harris and the equal number of men supporting Trump. Eighty-one percent of Black voters said they plan to support Harris as the Democratic nominee as opposed to 73% who said they would back Biden before he exited the race.

Overall, most Democratic voters and nearly half of voters overall say having Harris as the Democratic nominee makes them feel more motivated to vote. Harris outpolled Trump among registered voters in categories such as “energetic,” “focused” and “competent,” but Trump scored much higher – 66% to 48% – among voters who described him as “tough” and 54% to 46% as “effective.”

The CBS News/You Gov survey was conducted among 3,102 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 30-Aug. 2. The margin of error was plus/minus 2.1 points.