Millions of Americans are heading to the polls today to decide between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump for the next president of the United States.

The latest numbers show just how tight the race is. The final forecast from ABC’s 538.com – produced Nov. 5 at 5 a.m. CT- predicts Harris wins 50 out of 100 times compared to 49 out of 100 wins for Trump. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winners, according to the site.

“The model shifted toward Harris slightly on Monday, Nov. 4, after high-quality polls released over the weekend showed her tied or ahead in the key northern battlegrounds of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Polls from more frequently polled, but less well-regarded, firms had shown a more Trump-leaning race but also moved in Harris’s direction Monday,” 538′s analysis noted.

An average of national polls shows Harris leading Trump by 1.2 percentage points – 48% to 46.8%.

538 bases its forecast on polls and other factors such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. You can see the complete methodology here.

In swing states, Nevada is classified as a tossup with Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin predicted to go to Harris. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are skewing Republicans.

538′s scenario predictor

Harris wins the national popular vote – 71 out of 100

Trump wins the national popular vote – 29 out of 100

Harris wins popular vote but loses the Electoral College – 21 out of 100

Trump wins popular vote but loses the Electoral College – Less than 1 out of 100

Harris wins an Electoral College landslide (350-plus votes) – 8 out of 100

Trump wins an Electoral College landslide (350-plus votes) – 1 out of 100

Every state votes for the same party that it did in 2020 – 1 out of 100

Harris wins at least one state Biden didn’t win in 2020 – 41 out of 100

Trump wins at least one state he didn’t win in 2020 – 82 out of 100