In a world full of modern technology ranging from fast-as-lighting computers to weather satellites orbiting the Earth, many of us will – strangely – be looking Friday at a groundhog for a definitive weather forecast.

Friday, Feb. 2 is Groundhog Day and once again, all eyes will be on Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania as Punxsutawney Phil makes his annual weather prediction. The idea behind a weather-forecasting groundhog dates back more than 130 years and is pretty simple – according to legend, if Phil sees his shadow, there will be six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t see his shadow, you can expect an early spring.

Phil will make his 2024 prediction around sunrise, roughly 7:28 am. ET (6:28 a.m. CT).

The Weather Channel forecasts a cloudy sky for Pennsylvania, which lends itself to no shadow sighting and an early start to spring.

Phil’s accuracy, however, is about as iffy as you might guess for a meteorological furry critter.

According to Stormfax.com, Phil has seen his shadow 108 times compared to 20 times with no shadow. There’s no record of nine of his predictions. Based on those numbers, Phil has only been correct about 39% of the time. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration puts that number only slightly higher at 40% over the last decade.

Per USA Today, here are Phil’s most recent predictions:

• 2013: No Shadow
• 2014: Shadow
• 2015: Shadow
• 2016: No Shadow
• 2017: Shadow
• 2018: Shadow
• 2019: No Shadow
• 2020: No Shadow
• 2021: Shadow
• 2022: Shadow
• 2023: Shadow