Goodman: Is Alabama still a No.1 seed?

This is an opinion column.

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Suddenly, Alabama has lost four of its last six games.

Is the projected No.1 seed slipping away?

Alabama dropped its big home game against Florida on Wednesday night. The 99-94 loss put the Crimson Tide in an uncomfortable position. Alabama might need to win at Auburn on Saturday to secure top-line designation for the NCAA Tournament.

Selection Sunday is 10 days away. Despite the string of losses by Alabama, a strong case can still be made for three No.1 seeds from the SEC as the season rolls into the final weekend of the regular season.

If I had to pick the four best teams in the country today, Alabama would still be among them. Here’s the breakdown.

AUBURN (27-3, 15-2)

NET: 2

RPI: 1

KenPom: 2

SOS net rating: Tied for 1 (+18.70)

Quad 1 record: 15-3

Four best non-conference wins: Houston, Iowa State, Memphis, Purdue

Four best conference wins: Tennessee, at Ole Miss, at Kentucky, at Alabama

Final game of the regular season: vs. Alabama, 1:30 p.m. Sat.

Case for Auburn: The Tigers are a lock for the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament. With 15 Quad 1 wins, Auburn could make some history going into the big dance. Kansas had 17 Quad I victories in 2023, which set a record for the NET rankings era. Auburn is the conference champ of the SEC in a year when people are calling the league the best in the history of college basketball. Auburn features player of the year candidate Johni Broome, a splashy offense and plenty of length on the wings to help out in close games when buckets and rebounds are at a premium.

DUKE (27-3, 18-1)

NET: 1

RPI: 6

KenPom: 6

SOS net: 63 (+9.06)

Quad 1 record: 6-3

Four best non-conference wins: Arizona State, at Arizona, Auburn, George Mason

Four best conference wins: at Louisville, at SMU, North Carolina, at Wake Forest

Final game of the regular season: at North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. Sat.

Case for Duke: Duke’s biggest win of the season is the home game Auburn. Will it be enough to give the Blue Devils a No.1 seed? Probably so. Duke’s only loss against a conference opponent came at Clemson on Feb.8, but Duke non-conference losses to Kentucky and Kansas. Those are hard to overlook. When in doubt, though, we know the committee will go with the star power of a blue blood every time. Plus, Duke has the projected No.1 overall NBA draft pick, freshman sensation Cooper Flagg.

FLORIDA (26-4, 13-4)

NET: 4

RPI: 4

KenPom: 4

SOS net: 30 (+13.11)

Quad 1 record: 7-4

Four best non-conference wins: Wake Forest, Virginia, Arizona State, North Carolina

Four best conference wins: Tennessee, at Auburn, Texas A&M, at Alabama

Final game of the regular season: vs. Ole Miss, 5 p.m. Sat.

Case for Florida: Florida had a relatively weak non-conference schedule, but the Gators’ road wins against Auburn and Alabama could give coach Todd Golden’s team the benefit of the doubt. Florida’s strength is the team’s length, something Alabama knows too well after being out-rebounded by the Gators 50-35 on Wednesday in Coleman. The Gators feel like a No.1 seed going into its final regular season game and the conference tournament and have more Quad 1 wins than Duke. A victory against a tough Ole Miss team could secure a No.1 seed.

ALABAMA (23-7, 12-5)

NET: 6

RPI: 2

KemPom: 6

SOS net: Tied for 1 (+18.70)

Quad 1 record: 9-7

Four best non-conference wins: Memphis, at North Carolina, Creighton, Houston

Four best conference wins: at Texas A&M, at Kentucky, at Mississippi State, vs. Kentucky

Final game of the regular season: vs. Alabama, 1:30 p.m. Sat.

Case for Alabama: I highlighted the strength of schedule net rating in these vignettes for a reason. Alabama and Auburn are tied for No.1 in the country. No one has better non-conference victories this season than Alabama except for maybe one team, and that’s Auburn. Alabama’s strength of schedule could put Alabama over the line for a No.1 seed in the NCAA Tournament even with a loss at Auburn on Saturday. The Tide has two more Quad-1 victories than Florida and three more than Duke. Mark Sears is arguably the best point guard in the country, and that will give the Tide a boost, too.

Will the NCAA tournament selection committee give the SEC three No.1 overall seeds? That’s the biggest question facing the committee over the next 10 days. The numbers favor Auburn, Florida and Alabama. A win by Alabama on Saturday at Neville Arena should clinch three No.1 seeds for the SEC.

And if not Alabama, then the next best team would be Tennessee.

BE HEARD

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Joseph Goodman is the lead sports columnist for the Alabama Media Group, and author of the book “We Want Bama: A Season of Hope and the Making of Nick Saban’s Ultimate Team.”